Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Scope for further interest rate cuts in Iceland There is little sign that the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) expects to reduce interest rates further after today’s cut, but we think there is scope for a further appreciation of the króna to weigh on... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well placed to withstand Fed interest rate hikes The US Fed looks almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting later today. For most of Emerging Asia, higher rates in the US do not pose a major threat, even if the US Fed ends up hiking... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Bank profits have continued to shrink as lenders’ net interest margins have declined. However, non-financial firms are benefitting from rock-bottom borrowing costs and corporate bankruptcies remain... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The drop in headline Indian wholesale price inflation in May will increase the clamour for rate cuts. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC to keep rates stable post-Fed and beyond The US Fed is poised to raise rates on Wednesday. When it last hiked back in March, the People’s Bank quickly followed suit. This time, however, we expect the PBOC to stay on hold and, indeed, to keep... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) The sharp drop in Indian consumer price inflation in May is likely to raise further questions about the RBI’s reluctance to loosen policy. But we think the central bank’s unwillingness to cut rates is... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government pressure risks undermining RBI credibility The Indian government is treading on dangerous ground with calls for monetary easing and other moves that could put the independence of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at risk. A loss of credibility... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Political uncertainty clouds the outlook for policy With the General Election resulting in a hung parliament, there is a lot of uncertainty about the outlook for demand, Brexit and policy. As a result, the MPC is even more likely to sit firmly on its... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s dilemma getting worse The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week, but faces a growing dilemma over its plans for the rest of the year. Core inflation has dropped back recently, while... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s new inflation forecast The ECB revised its inflation forecast down this week, but we doubt that this has meaningfully changed the outlook for monetary policy. After all, the change was small, and largely reflected tweaks to... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: monetary policy easing cycle has further to run Peru’s central bank unexpectedly left its policy interest rate unchanged at 4.00%, but the accompanying statement hinted at further easing and we think additional rate cuts are likely. We expect the... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (May) Norwegian inflation resumed its decline in May, and we think that the fall has further to run. So we still forecast one interest rate cut by the Norges Bank later this year. 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the BoJ continue to scale back its JGB purchases? The Bank of Japan’s JGB purchases of ¥4.3 trillion in May were the lowest since it stepped up purchases in October 2014. If overseas yields rebound in coming months as we expect, we will probably see... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to keep policy loose to support inflation’s rise The Swiss National Bank will once again stress after its meeting on 15th June that it remains prepared to act to prevent any significant renewed appreciation of the Swiss franc. Granted, the recent... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to remain on hold for now Ahead of next week’s meeting, today’s soft GDP data are unlikely to concern the Central Bank of Iceland too much. The fact that last month’s interest rate cut has done little to stem the króna’s... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB eases loosening bias, but rate hikes a distant prospect The ECB removed its reference to possible interest rate cuts today, judging that the threat of deflation has passed. But it is still far from convinced that inflation is on a sustained path towards... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
