Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Russian inflation, to 3.5% y/y, last month supports our view that the central bank will refrain from tightening monetary policy further. Markets, in contrast... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA's optimism unlikely to materialise The upward revision to the RBA’s growth and inflation forecasts suggest that the Bank is moving closer to tightening policy. But we still think that the downturn in the housing market will result in... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts Q4 with a whimper rather than a bang The large fall in the PMIs in October suggests that the economy slowed sharply at the start of Q4. Admittedly, some slowdown from rolling three-month GDP growth of 0.7% in July and August always... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s FX reserve plan doesn’t stack up Concerns that “super minister” Paulo Guedes’ plan to reduce the Brazilian government’s interest payments by selling FX reserves would increase external vulnerabilities look overdone. However, the plan... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation: two years on The benefits of the government’s demonetisation policy should be evident by now, two years after the shock announcement that the bulk of the country’s bank notes were being withdrawn. But the promised... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The fiscal winds change, higher rates on the horizon Philip “the fiscal hawk” Hammond was surprisingly generous in the Budget on Monday, spending his entire windfall from the downward revision to the OBR’s borrowing forecast. This means that rather than... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss outlook darkens, Riksbank rate rises ahead Surveys published this week suggest that the Swiss economy is faltering after a strong first half of 2018, while inflationary pressures remain weak. This supports our view that the SNB will keep... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Politburo signals policy support The Politburo statement this week gave a clear signal that further policy support for China’s economy is on the way. But with headwinds building, we don’t expect to see clear signs of economic... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Midterms will split Congress; Fed on hold until Dec. The betting odds suggest that there are few uncertainties surrounding the broad outcomes of Tuesday’s midterm elections, with the Democrats likely to win control of the House while the Republicans... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Problems mount for Pakistan as Khan heads off to China Inflation can now be added to the list of problems facing Pakistan after figures published today showed headline inflation rose to a four-year high last month. Meanwhile, the chances of an improvement... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT paves way for cuts, Polish industry stays soft in Q4 The latest comments from Turkey’s central bank suggest that policymakers are considering unwinding some of the recent rate hikes, reinforcing our view that the MPC isn’t serious about tackling the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to tighten faster than investors expect While the minutes to the Riksbank’s October meeting all but confirmed that interest rates will start to rise in the coming months, a December hike is not a done deal. But regardless of whether the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly TPP boost to Asia, rate hikes unlikely in Korea The announcement that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will come into force on 30th December is important in a number of ways. Not only should it provide a boost to growth prospects across parts of Asia... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Central bank independence at stake Rising tension between the government and the RBI has dominated headlines this week, and also caused jitters in local markets. This comes as little surprise - after all, at the heart of the matter is... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget package will boost growth (and rates) The fiscal loosening announced in the Autumn Budget has prompted us to raise our forecasts for GDP growth and interest rates. In our base case, which assumes a Brexit deal is secured, we now expect... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: Still scope for more tightening in 2019 The forecasts accompanying today’s Czech monetary policy meeting imply that the CNB’s tightening cycle is now finished. Following seven interest hikes, we agree that the bulk of tightening has already... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
