Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU talks at risk, Riksbank to signal Q4 rate rise The Swiss Government this week made no progress towards reaching a deal with Brussels that would see Switzerland retain its unrestricted access to the Single Market. With the anti-immigrant SVP party... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes likely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hike interest rates by a more-than-expected 50 basis points today suggests that the central bank’s priority over the coming months will be to support the currency... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts (Q1) Despite the upward revision to Q1 GDP growth, the breakdown left the economy looking a little more fragile than before. But there are still reasons to be optimistic about the growth outlook. 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA, funding costs and mortgage rates The recent rebound in short-term funding costs is not big enough to prompt all banks to raise their mortgages rates by more than a few basis points. But the risk that funding costs rise further is one... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Inflation rise tests the RBI's credibility A sharp rise in inflation over recent months, and a jump in household inflation expectations, has raised concerns that the RBI has fallen behind the curve and is squandering its hard-won inflation... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates on hold, easing cycle to resume in September The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold (rather than lower rates) was a response to recently-announced subsidy cuts that will push up inflation. But the easing cycle is... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed-ECB divergence has another year to run Over the next twelve months we expect the gap in policy rates between the US and euro-zone to continue to widen. The Fed is likely to raise rates every three months while the ECB leaves rates... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Hawkish shift across the region Central banks across Emerging Europe have become increasingly hawkish in the past few weeks, supporting our view that policy in the region will (in most places) be tighter than most expect over the... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ acknowledging the growing downside risks The changes to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy statement after it left interest rates at 1.75% today are more cosmetic than substantive. But the Bank has acknowledged the growing... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB raise its interest rates in tandem? While most forecasters now agree with our long-held view that the first ECB rate hike will come in September 2019, there is no clear consensus over which rate will rise first or why. In this Update... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: More tightening in 2018 & 2019 The statement and press conference following today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the Council resumed its tightening cycle – were on the hawkish side, supporting our view that further rate hikes are... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Weak performance in key economies Figures released over the past month confirmed that Africa’s larger economies have all struggled in 2018. South Africa, where GDP actually fell in Q1, was the worst performer. Elsewhere, figures from... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Aussie and kiwi dollars may depreciate further The Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened to US$0.74 and US$0.68 respectively as rising trade tensions between the US and China have reduced the appetite for riskier currencies. Looking... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC hints that it will press ahead in August The Bank of England Chief Economist, Andy Haldane’s, surprise vote for an interest rate increase in June, alongside a hawkish set of minutes, suggests that the MPC will press ahead with a rate hike in... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Why the SARB will look through rand falls Market fears that South African policymakers will hike interest rates in response to a weak rand are overdone. We think that the SARB’s repo rate will be held at 6.50% for the rest of this year. 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Philippines: A two-year progress report on President Duterte Two years after coming to power, President Duterte of the Philippines has not been the disaster for the economy that some feared. Growth has remained strong, while economic policy has been left in the... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
