RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Orr’s sticking to the plan The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 28 th June and Governor Orr may well repeat that rates will stay at this... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) GDP growth is by no means falling off a cliff, but the end of the migration and housing booms have already caused a marked slowdown and they probably mean growth will ease to just 2.0% next year... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes keep door open for further tightening The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s June policy meeting – at which interest rates were hiked – are dominated by concerns about upside risks to inflation and the potential for damage to the... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: One more hike likely Given the hawkish tone of the central bank’s statement, a further rate increase in the Philippines now looks likely. We originally thought today’s hike would mark the end of the tightening cycle. But... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to keep monetary policy supportive The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold today and the accompanying statement makes clear that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a while longer yet. With inflation benign... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) South African inflation eased slightly in May, which should reduce speculation that the SARB will hike rates in the coming months. We think that policymakers will keep rates on hold, before cutting in... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update FX sell-off to trigger hike in Mexico, but Brazil to hold The latest sell-off in the Mexican peso tips the balance towards policy being tightened at Thursday’s central bank meeting. We’re changing our forecast and now expect a 50bp hike in the policy... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC bringing era of ultra-loose policy to an end The post-meeting communications following today’s Hungarian MPC meeting offered some strong hints that the recent era of ultra-loose monetary policy is in its final days. We think that unconventional... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could the ECB still hike if the Fed started cutting? We expect the ECB to start raising interest rates in September 2019, not long before we judge that the US Fed will start to cut. Such divergence between the two central banks would be almost... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Will the Swiss and Nordic central banks follow the ECB? The Swiss and Nordic central banks are unlikely to follow the ECB in announcing significant changes to monetary policy over the next month. 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Inflation to be contained this year Inflation in Uganda will accelerate over the coming months, but remain below the highs recorded last year. Policymakers will probably leave rates on hold this year, but restart their easing cycle in... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank to slow (but not end) easing cycle Govenor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments at today’s post-meeting press conference are likely to reinforce views in the markets that the central bank’s easing cycle is at an end. For our part, we think... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What could upend the ECB’s plans? The ECB finally announced this week that the end of its asset purchase programme is in sight and that rates will stay on hold at least until the second half of 2019. But the ECB is not on auto-pilot... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Fed and ECB policy keep driving dollar/euro? The movements in dollar/euro over the past few days are a reminder that Fed and ECB policy are still important drivers of the exchange rate. Our view remains that their policies will provide ongoing... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand: Demographics and politics to drag on prospects Thailand’s working age population is forecast to start shrinking from next year, presenting a headwind to the country’s economic prospects. With productivity growth set to remain weak, economic growth... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still holding fast to ultra-loose policy The Bank of Japan has recently been expressing greater concern about the impact of ultra-loose monetary policy on financial stability. But Governor Kuroda today insisted that the key focus of policy... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
