Global Inflation Watch Reflation in the US, but not elsewhere Even before the latest rise in oil prices, the average inflation rate in the G7 was set to rebound to over 2% early next year. In the US, Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus should boost US demand... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Keeping up the fight against a strong franc The Swiss National Bank will stress after its meeting on 15th December that it is prepared to act decisively to prevent any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc in the coming months. Indeed... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook On course for weakest growth since the global financial crisis The Middle East & North Africa region will struggle again next year, recording its weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis in 2009. Fiscal policy will have to be tightened in most... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No end in sight for ECB monetary support While the ECB opted to extend its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) at a slower monthly pace than anticipated, there is no immediate end in sight in terms of its duration. Indeed, we think that the ECB... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From bad to worse and beyond in Brazil Signs that Brazil’s economy was turning a corner around the middle of this year have been extinguished by a recent run of awful data and – more ominously – renewed political strife. There are still... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in November, coming on the back of less hawkish communications from policymakers in recent weeks, make it more likely that COPOM will step up... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian election likely to trigger further fiscal loosening Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to hint at 2017 rate cut The Norges Bank is almost certain to leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting on 15th December. Indeed, in October, the Bank repeated its message that “the key policy rate would most likely... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia well-placed to weather Fed rate hikes For most countries in Emerging Asia an increase in US interest rates is not a major cause for concern. However, aggressive Fed tightening could cause problems in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation could boost inflation over longer term We think that consumer price inflation dropped in November as the government’s demonetisation measures are likely to have led to some price discounting. However, demonetisation could boost inflation... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What to expect in 2017 China defied the bears this year with an economic turnaround that took many by surprise. But the current strength cannot be sustained and the risk now is that many don’t appreciate how soon growth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland to keep rates unchanged Little has changed since the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) last met and so, like last month, policy will be unchanged next week. As political and exchange rate uncertainty fades next year, concerns... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Will Trump be okay with the Fed’s rate hike? The uncertainty surrounding next week’s Fed meeting is not about the out come of that meeting – a 25 basis point rate hike is all but guaranteed – but over President-elect Donald Trump’s potential... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Economy’s resilience to keep MPC on hold The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will take some comfort from recent data suggesting that the economy has maintained its momentum in Q4, while sterling’s recovery may have lessened the extent to... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish Draghi signals prolonged ECB market presence While the ECB announced today that it would slow the pace of its asset purchases from next April, it also committed to buying for longer than anticipated. What’s more, it expressed a clear bias... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation rose to 3.3% y/y in November, from 3.1% y/y in October, and it’s unlikely to stop there. We expect the headline rate to climb above the top-end of the central bank’s 2-4% target... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
