Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate to stay on hold throughout 2017 Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.0% suggests that it is more worried about supporting the weak currency than boosting the sluggish economy. Looking... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing and Trump add to list of economy’s woes The economy has recovered from the temporary disruption caused by the wildfires earlier this year and the slump in mining-related investment, triggered by the collapse in oil prices last year, is... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN holds rates in face of “stagflation” Today’s MPC statement makes it very clear that the CBN is unwilling to hike interest rates in the face of inflation that is more than double the official target. The next move will probably be down. 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Riksbank will have to tighten policy next year Swedish inflation is set to rise sharply over the next year. As such, the Riksbank’s intention to loosen monetary policy further seems like a mistake and any additional interest rate cuts will have to... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China last month were the largest since January’s panic over the renminbi. While markets appear more at ease about the trajectory of renminbi... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets stabilise after post-Trump sell-off Financial markets across the emerging world have stabilised following an initial sell-off in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election earlier this month. This partly reflects... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US election has led to a rash of sizeable downgrades to growth forecasts for Mexico, including several predictions of a recession. But we think the impact over... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tighter financial conditions won’t stop the Fed Although the tightening of financial conditions has persuaded the Fed to hold off from tightening monetary policy on several occasions over the past couple of years, we doubt that the recent surge in... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tighter financial conditions may prompt rate cut Although the Canadian dollar has weakened further lately, financial conditions overall appear to be tightening now because of rising market interest rates and new stricter mortgage rules. Given the... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The continued softness in core consumer prices in October suggests that the downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s core inflation rate projection is growing, which is consistent with our view that an... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian ringgit weakness to deter interest rate cuts The Malaysian central bank confirmed today that it has been intervening in foreign exchange markets to support the ringgit, which is now close to its lowest level since the Asian financial crisis... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Interest rates to stay on hold, despite weak Q3 GDP Chile’s central bank kept interest rates on hold at 3.50% and, while GDP data released this morning showed that economic growth remained sluggish in Q3 at 1.6% y/y, we still think it would take a... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market starting to cool One of the key drivers of the economic turnaround this year, the property market,is starting to cool. Growth in the prices of new residential properties slumped inOctober in the largest (tier 1 and... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future With the yen weakening dramatically since the US election and incoming data showing GDP growth strong last quarter, there is now little pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease further. Less positively... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to rise, but interest rates to remain low Inflation is set to continue rising across Emerging Asia as the effects of past falls in oil prices drop out of the annual comparison. However, we doubt the increase will be large enough to worry most... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up peso, further hikes likely The 50bp increase in Mexican interest rates (to 5.25%) at today’s meeting was aimed at supporting the peso in the aftermath of the US election and it’s clear that further hikes are on the cards. We... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
