UK Economics Update Why the MPC won’t fall too far behind the Fed The Monetary Policy Committee’s latest inflation forecasts imply that UK interest rates will remain substantially below US rates for the foreseeable future. But there are reasons why the gap may not... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Markets tumble with Iran’s nuclear deal on the brink Financial markets in the Middle East & North Africa have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world over the past week following President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now While the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, its new forecasts show that it expects inflation to remain above target for the next three years. Moreover, we think that the Bank is... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: coalescing risks to trigger emergency rate hike Market sentiment towards Turkey is quickly evaporating as fears mount over the build-up of external vulnerabilities, high and rising inflation, and growing concerns that the central bank’s... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand in no hurry to hike rates The Bank of Thailand unsurprisingly decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.5% against a backdrop of solid economic growth and subdued inflationary pressures. There was nothing in the... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) With wage growth stuck in the mud at 2.1% in the first quarter and likely to stay there or thereabouts for a while yet, the prospect of an interest rate rise next year has diminished further. It also... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Purchases of government bonds by the Bank of Japan have stabilised over the past six months. But the rate at which its holdings are growing has continued to slow as its bonds are now maturing at a... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in April nevertheless supports our view that policy tightening is likely this year. A... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks continue to relax lending standards In March, broad money growth slowed a bit in the euro-zone, UK and Japan. Indeed, in the euro-zone it dropped to its slowest rate since the ECB started its Asset Purchase Programme in early 2015... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC unlikely to wait too long After the sea of downbeat economic news in recent weeks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s decision to keep rates unchanged at its meeting in May came as little surprise. Of course, the MPC’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q1 GDP figures The batch of preliminary Q1 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due next week should confirm that, while regional growth peaked last year, it remained relatively strong at the start of 2018. The pace of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly seven years. We think GDP growth has now peaked though and will slow over the coming months as headwinds from tightening... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: At least one more rate cut before year-end After cutting its lending rate just a month ago, it was no surprise that the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) decided to leave policy on hold today. However, with inflation benign and the economic... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now The Central Bank of Iceland is likely to leave policy unchanged next week. But with inflation set to rise, we expect it to raise interest rates later this year. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: What next for monetary policy post-election While Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at today’s scheduled monetary policy meeting, the outlook for monetary policy has been thrown into considerable uncertainty following... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to wait for evidence that slowdown is temporary While the MPC thinks that the economy’s slow start to the year should prove temporary, it sees the costs of waiting a few more months to be sure as being relatively low. As a result, we still expect... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
