Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Despite the recent sell-off in peripheral European bond markets, we still expect the Fed to raise rates again tomorrow and the ECB to announce at its meeting on Thursday its plans to bring its asset... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will surging interest rates sink the economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC needs to grab the bull by the horns Romania’s economy is overheating and, unless monetary policy is tightened markedly in the months ahead, a nastier adjustment and more abrupt slowdown in GDP growth lies in wait.Romania’s economy is... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Growth in the narrow monetary aggregates slowed further in April, but there is still little to suggest that this is having much of an impact on the wider economy. Our measure of M3 growth has held up... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Financial stability concerns unlikely to lead to tightening Concerns about financial stability seem to have become more widespread on the Policy Board. But inflation remains far below the 2% target and the prospect of a renewed slowdown in domestic demand... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger data keeps August hike on the cards Economic growth of 0.4% or so in Q2 – as suggested by the latest business surveys – would normally be pretty respectable. But coming after Q1’s snow-related slowdown, it looks a little soft. What’s... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) Brazilian inflation ticked up from 2.8% y/y in April to 2.9% in May, due in part to the recent truck drivers’ strike, which has led to supply disruptions. And while the markets have responded to the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household balance sheets still in decent shape Although there are early signs that the finances of US households are coming under a bit of pressure as interest rates rise, the near-term outlook for household consumption in advanced economies... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Balance sheet weaknesses ebbing After a difficult period, recent data show that Ghana’s balance sheet problems are now behind us. While problems in the banking sector have emerged, policymakers are taking the right steps to tackle... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing slump and higher rates weighing on growth We expect economic growth to slow to 1.7% this year and only 1.3% in 2019, as the housing downturn continues to weigh on consumption and residential investment. That weakness will eventually force the... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to announce taper despite Italy fears Despite worries about Italy’s new Government, we suspect that the ECB will announce after its meeting on 14th June that it will end its asset purchases this year. It might also strengthen its guidance... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Peripheral bond yields rise amid political turmoil Politics have captured the limelight over the past month. Bond yields in Italy have risen sharply over the past few weeks as concerns about debt sustainability and the new government’s commitment to... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank hikes, elections key to rate outlook The Turkish central bank’s decision to hike its one-week repo rate by 125bp, to 17.75%, is a tentative sign that it is shifting its focus away from simply shoring up the lira and towards tackling high... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated in May, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Core inflation will also have remained elevated, and this is likely to be the case for... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: What to make of BNM head’s resignation The resignation of Malaysia’s central bank governor amid accusations of corruption at the Bank is an encouraging sign that the new government’s anti-corruption drive is gathering pace. The new... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Recent market turmoil will not derail the Fed Despite political tensions in Europe and the uncertainty over trade policy, we expect the Fed to press ahead and raise interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting. With second quarter GDP growth... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
