India Chart Pack BJP still in strong position despite Karnataka setback The BJP’s failure to form a coalition despite winning by far the most seats in the Karnataka state election is a setback for the ruling national party, with the main opposition Congress and the local... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the Bank of Japan finally winning? On some measures, Japan has been the strongest performing large developed economy over recent years. Growth has been unusually fast, unemployment is at historic lows and wage growth at two-decade... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers hold off, will cut later this year A surprisingly hawkish MPC statement suggest that Nigerian policymakers (who held their key rate at 14.00% today) will keep rates on hold for most of this year. But they will still probably cut rates... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The implications of Switzerland’s “Vollgeld” referendum A “yes” vote in Switzerland’s sovereign money referendum next month would completely overturn the current monetary system. It would constrain the Swiss National Bank’s approach to monetary policy... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will probably reduce its ETF purchases The BoJ could continue buying ETFs at the current pace for a long time since its purchases are small relative to the size of the stock market. But the Bank reckons that the stock market is now close... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How will monetary policy influence the markets? We think that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will diverge by more than investors are anticipating over the next year or so, but then converge in a way that they are not envisaging. We expect... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising rates beginning to squeeze household finances Households’ balance sheets are still in good shape, with debt burdens stabilising well below their pre-crisis levels and delinquencies low. However, the further rise in newly delinquent credit card... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising rates add to pressure on housing Home sales dropped to a five-year low in April and the surge in interest rates suggests the downward trend in sales has further to run. Although the Bank of Canada is still on the fence regarding the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the strength in jobs growth last? This week’s figures suggested that the labour market is in rude health. Admittedly, some of the timelier measures of employment growth have started to weaken. And with the labour market now... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate sector well placed to cope with higher rates Higher market interest rates will undoubtedly act as a drag on household spending and business investment, offsetting some of the temporary boost from fiscal stimulus. We expect that will eventually... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Who will follow Indonesia higher? The Philippines, India and Korea are all likely to follow Bank Indonesia by hiking interest rates over the next couple of months. But unlike Indonesia, these three are set to tighten policy from a... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the slowdown in exports a sign of things to come? Data released this week added to the evidence that soft global demand and the previous appreciation of the euro have taken a toll on euro-zone exports. We doubt that exports will regain all of their... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where to look for tighter credit conditions Credit conditions in Australia will surely tighten further as a result of the Royal Commission investigation into misconduct in the financial sector, but there is a huge amount of uncertainty about... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Rebound in growth to lead to higher interest rates The bout of softer-than-expected inflation and activity data which caused the MPC to step back from hiking Bank Rate in May is certainly reason for caution. But like the MPC, we think that temporary... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle takes a pause The Egyptian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, rather than cut them again, comes on the back of a pick-up in underlying price pressures as well as the recent sell-off in EM... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further hikes likely in Indonesia amid rupiah worries The performance of the rupiah will continue to determine the near-term outlook for monetary policy in Indonesia. With the currency likely to remain under downward pressure as Treasury yields in the US... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
