Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will remain a worry for the RBA Financial markets look to have jumped the gun by concluding that the chance of a further interest rate cut in Australia has all but vanished. We think that the weak outlook for wage growth may yet... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s Yellen stalls for time, but December rate hike coming Chair Janet Yellen’s remarkably bland prepared congressional testimony today did nothing to change our view that the Fed will hike interest rates at the upcoming mid-December FOMC meeting. Despite... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds rates, easing cycle nearing an end Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold at 4.75% and made clear that its focus is currently on maintaining a stable exchange rate rather than supporting the economy. With rate hikes in... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan moves one step closer to helicopter money With its first fixed-rate operation today in support of the new target for 10-year Japanese Government Bond yields, the Bank of Japan has moved closer to full-fledged helicopter money. There are... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will struggle to keep franc’s rise at bay The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) pledge to intervene in foreign exchange markets appears to havealleviated upward pressure on the franc in the wake of the US election. But experience has shown... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong króna may yet prompt a rate cut in Iceland The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged rests on overly cautious assumptions for the króna and on fears about fiscal policy and capital controls that will probably not... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Amid falling profitability and sluggish loan demand at home, banks continue to expand overseas lending. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further fall in India’s consumer price inflation last month, along with the likely shock to demand from the government’s withdrawal of most bank notes, is likely to increase the clamour for... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged down in October, but we expect it to resume accelerating over the coming months. The big picture is that there is still little room for further policy loosening. 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Commodity prices shift from headwind to tailwind The recent leap in the prices of the main commodity exports of Australia and New Zealand will boost domestic demand in both economies, but it is unlikely to lead to much faster wage growth and much... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will European bonds fare better than US Treasuries? In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, we are nudging up our forecasts for government bond yields in Europe. But we still don’t expect that they will rise as fast as in... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Trump win pushes bond yields higher Donald Trump’s victory has exacerbated the upward movement in Treasury yields, pushing 10-year UK gilt yields higher too. Meanwhile, market participants have revised up their expectations for official... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) The 0.5% q/q rise in GDP last quarter implies that the output gap was the smallest since 2014’s sales tax hike. Combined with the recent weakening of the yen, today’s figures therefore reduce the... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five questions (and answers) about Trump and Asia Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has created a great deal of uncertainty for the region. In this Weekly, we answer five key questions. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rising inflation to trigger rate hikes next year Despite the drop in the sol in recent days and the rising inflation rate, Peru’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.25% once again. Nonetheless, we expect hikes to resume next year and the... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
