ECB Watch Expect “closed-mouth” operations from Mr Draghi With the economic data weakening, but some members of the Governing Council keen to bring asset purchases to an end, President Draghi is unlikely to give much away next week. We suspect that the ECB... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Economy to withstand higher interest rates We maintain our relatively optimistic view about the prospects for UK economic growth over the next few years. In particular, a recovery in real earnings should help household spending growth to... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Changed Riksbank guidance will still signal 2018 rate rise At next week’s meeting, the Riksbank is likely to cut its GDP growth and inflation forecasts. This leads us to expect the Bank to signal that interest rate rises will come later than policymakers... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The fall back in CPI inflation towards the bottom of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range in the first quarter was partly due to government decisions rather than economic forces, but it nonetheless highlights... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Slow start to the year not a sign of things to come While the latest data suggest that the European economies made a weak start to the year, we do not see this as the start of a serious slowdown. The euro-zone in particular has more spare capacity than... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada moving to side lines The Bank of Canada left its key policy rate unchanged at 1.25% at today's Governing Council meeting and, although the markets still anticipate a further 25bp rate hike later this year, we think the... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Headline wholesale price inflation held steady in March. But with core price pressures still elevated, we remain comfortable with our view that policy rate hikes are likely later this year. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong interest rates to rise as liquidity tightens The HKMA’s sales of foreign exchange FX to support the Hong Kong dollar, which hit the weak end of its trading band this week for the first time since 2005, shows the exchange rate regime working as... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Softer data probably won’t deter MPC The recent run of weak data suggests that a hike in Bank Rate, to 0.75% in May, is far from a done deal. But we don’t think that a May hike is now off the table. Some of the unexpected weakening in... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rates on hold, easing cycle probably over Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.75% last night and, while the statement gave little away regarding future moves, we think the easing cycle is probably over. 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further policy tightening in Singapore unlikely The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today moved to increase the slope of its nominal effective exchange rate policy band, a decision that amounts to a tightening of its policy stance. But with... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Housing woes to keep Bank on the side lines The Bank of Canada is unlikely to hike interest rates again at its Governing Council meeting next Wednesday. Even with the risk of NAFTA’s demise fading and core inflation picking up, there is now a... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Bank lending has continued to slow in recent months. However, banks’ willingness to provide credit has rarely been higher, and broader measures of credit that also include corporate bonds show that... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s central bank in wait-and-see mode The Bank of Korea (BoK) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, and the dovish tone of the governor’s press conference suggests that the BoK is likely to remain on the sidelines... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC increasingly dovish, rate hikes unlikely this year Governor Glapinski’s extremely dovish post-meeting press conference, coupled with the recent weak inflation data, has prompted us to take out the interest rate hikes from our forecast for this year... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
