Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Aug.) Following August’s increase in core inflation to a 19-month high, the Norges Bank is almost certain to raise interest rates at next week’s meeting. But policymakers remain cautious about the impact of... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish election not a game-changer The latest opinion polls suggests that Sunday’s general election in Sweden will be a close call. But the outcome of the vote is unlikely to significantly alter the outlook for the economy or monetary... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are the ISM surveys too good to be true? The ISM surveys released this week suggest that the economy is set for another quarter of growth above 4% annualised. We suspect that will prove a little too optimistic, but the bottom line is that... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economy holding up despite EM problems Despite the steady flow of negative news about protectionism and crises in emerging economies, global growth is holding up well in Q3. Moreover, the labour market has continued to strengthen... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly More rate hikes likely in the Philippines, but not Korea The central bank governor of the Philippines, Nestor Espenilla, today all but confirmed that interest rates will be raised soon, possibly in an emergency meeting before the BSP is next scheduled to... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI intervention, GDP doubts, Delhi protests The latest slide in the rupee appears finally to have jolted the RBI into action, with widespread reports of intervention today. We doubt that this will draw a line under the rupee’s decline... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks hint at rate hikes, Turkish GDP figures Central banks in both Russia and Turkey created a stir this week by raising the prospect of rate hikes, but we think that the degree of tightening in Turkey will disappoint markets and policymakers in... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) The People’s Bank still appears reluctant to deploy its FX reserves in order to support the renminbi. We suspect that it is leaning on state-owned financial institutions to sell foreign assets in its... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Inflation fears overdone, more policy tweaks Chinese consumers appear to have become more worried about inflation recently. But these concerns may reflect a broader sense of unease among households in response to a weakening labour market rather... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Not quite on autopilot, but change of course unlikely Despite mixed news from the economy and growing risks to the outlook, we expect the ECB to reiterate that asset purchases are set to end in December and that interest rates will probably rise... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what will the CBRT deliver? Turkey’s central bank has all but confirmed that it will raise interest rates at next week’s MPC meeting and an increase of 350-400bp seems to be the bare minimum that will be needed to soothe... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait a while before hiking again The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to increase interest rates at its meeting on 13th September so soon after the last rise. In fact, given our assumption that a Brexit deal will only be... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug.) The decline in Brazilian inflation in August, to 4.2% y/y, adds to the reasons to think that Copom won’t raise interest rates at its meeting this month. Moreover, core inflation still looks quite soft... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) The improvement in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q2 should help to ease concerns about the country’s external financing needs and provide some support to the rand. Coming alongside the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to raise rates in December Despite the more dovish tone of today’s policy announcement, the Riksbank looks likely to raise interest rates in December. We think that the Bank will then tighten more quickly in 2019 and 2020 than... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
