Asia Economics Update Why rate hikes in Thailand would be a bad idea The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of accompanying statement suggests that rate hikes are in the pipeline. With inflationary pressures very... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation slowed to 4.9% in August, which supports our view that policymakers at the SARB will leave their key rate on hold at 6.50% at their meeting tomorrow. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Mounting risks suggest BoJ on hold for longer The Bank of Japan today reiterated its pledge to keep rates low for a prolonged period. With the sales tax hike looming and inflation set to remain below target for longer, we think that the Bank will... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC bringing loose policy to an end The National Bank of Hungary’s revamp of its monetary policy framework announced today was characteristically complex. But the key point is that the Bank is paving the way for policy tightening and we... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Wage growth may play stronger role in ECB policy The latest comments from the ECB’s Benoît Coeuré suggest that future guidance about the pace of policy tightening might hinge on developments in wage growth. In our view, this would be a positive... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade war set to escalate The US appears to be on the verge of expanding its tariffs to cover a total of $250bn of Chinese goods, the production of which generates 1.3% of China’s GDP. The proposed $200bn tariff list includes... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Our new interest rate & Australian dollar forecasts Our new forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise interest rates from the record low of 1.5% until late in 2020 compares to the consensus view that lift-off will take place late next... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina budget concerns, Brazil election heating up Argentina’s 2019 budget will reportedly contain some much-needed spending cuts, but key IMF requests are conspicuous by their absence. Meanwhile, Brazil’s election race is beginning to heat up, but... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey hikes, Czech rates in focus, Hungary in trouble The aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey on Thursday has soothed the markets, but President Erdogan’s comments today reinforce our fears that he will put pressure on the central bank to reverse... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s election dead heat no big deal for Riksbank Political uncertainty following Sweden’s general election last weekend is unlikely to meaningfully alter the Riksbank’s plans to start tightening policy around the turn of the year. Meanwhile, in... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Solid start to Q3, but Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold While Michel Barnier, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, raised hopes that a Brexit deal will be secured soon, we suspect that an agreement is still some way off. This feeds into our forecast that sterling... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Although retail sales were weaker than we had been expecting in August specifically, upward revisions to sales in previous months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have remained... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sanctions push Russian central bank to tighten The tone of the Russian central bank’s press conference suggests that today’s interest rate hike was a pre-emptive move against an expected tightening of US sanctions, not the start of a cycle. As... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Do financial markets pose a risk to the global economy? Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are concerns that the financial markets will bring the global economy to its knees again. We do not think, however, that they will be a major... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB hawkish, Zambia’s debt troubles There are growing suggestions that the South African Reserve Bank will raise interest rates at its meeting next week, but the weakness of the latest activity data and of inflation expectations mean we... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Although CPIF inflation was above target in August, the further decline in non-energy inflation will worry the Riksbank. If it remains soft, then the Bank will probably keep rates on hold until early... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
