Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank pledges continuity The wording of last night’s Brazilian monetary policy statement provides further evidence that the appointment of new governor Roberto Campos Neto won’t cause much of a change to monetary policy. With... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hold the line The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will retain its neutral stance when it keeps rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday the 27th March 2019. The softening in GDP growth in the second half of... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed signals extended patience & announces end of QT The Fed’s revised economic projections, which now imply no rate hikes this year, together with the announcement that it will halt its balance sheet run-down in September, came as a positive surprise... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will monetary policy rescue E-Z peripheral bonds? We expect bonds in the euro-zone’s “periphery”, particularly in Italy, to come under renewed pressure in the rest of 2019 as growth remains weak and political risks creep up. However, we think that... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Slowing activity reduces inflation risks further We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Iceland appear even less likely As we expected, weak economic data and a recent pick-up in the króna contributed to the Central Bank of Iceland leaving interest rates on hold today. While it maintained a hawkish bias in its... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget 2019 won’t drive pick-up in growth The modest increase in spending detailed in Canada’s 2019 federal budget does little to alter the economic outlook. The onus therefore remains on the Bank of Canada to support the economy. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) With inflation on the up and signs of increasing inflationary pressures in the labour market, we doubt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will sit on its hands for long after tomorrow’s meeting. If... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to leave rates unchanged this year The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today but sounded decidedly more dovish than at its previous meeting. While weak growth and low inflation will take hikes off the table, the BoT... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn becoming a major drag We believe that the downturn in the housing market will have a larger negative impact on the economy than most believe and have lowered our GDP forecast for 2019 to 1.5%. The upshot is that the labour... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee rally unlikely to last The 3% rise in the rupee against the US dollar so far in March has left it at its strongest rate since August, and means it has outperformed all other major EM currencies this month. This is related... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s central bank set to keep rates low for longer Brazil’s new central bank governor, Roberto Campos Neto, inherits a benign inflation environment and we now think the Selic rate will be left unchanged at its current historic low of 6.5% until at... 19th March 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Drop in rates won’t trigger a surge in house prices A decline in mortgage interest rates from the start of 2012 was an important factor behind the rise in house prices in recent years. But we don’t think the upcoming drop in interest rates will have... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation target in question again The wisdom of the Bank of Japan sticking with an inflation target it can’t reach is being questioned again, including by Japan’s finance minister this week. But all alternatives would be worse. And... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted inflation strengthens case for Fed patience The deluge of data this week provided some mixed signs on economic activity, but one clear theme from the producer and consumer price releases was that what little inflationary pressure there is in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
