Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may be on course to sell JGBs The sharp fall in JGB yields in recent weeks means that the Bank of Japan will probably lower its JGB purchases more quickly than we had anticipated. In fact, there’s a chance that the Bank may soon... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian central bank pauses easing cycle The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates unchanged (rather than cut rates) appears to have been a result of the jump in inflation in February. But if we’re right that... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Yield curves flatten as case for looser policy builds The flattening of yields curves over recent weeks has raised fears of a sharp economic slowdown to come. Central banks are unlikely to be led by the views of bond markets, not least because their... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech National Bank flags euro-zone concerns The Czech National Bank made clear that it is more concerned about the impact of weakness in the euro-zone than strong domestic inflationary pressures. We still think that above-target inflation may... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB’s inflation concerns fading The South African Reserve Bank’s (relatively) dovish post-meeting communications support our view that the next move in interest rates will be down (probably in early 2020). The markets have moved... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic weakness will force rate cuts this year We expect GDP growth to slow to only 1.0% this year, as the housing downturn weighs on the domestic economy and exports are held back by the global slowdown. That weakness should prompt the Bank of... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Weak profits strengthen case for benchmark rate cuts A sharp fall in earnings for industrial firms in January and February shows the pressure that weak demand is putting firms’ balance sheets under. We think officials will respond by cutting benchmark... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The pick-up in broad money growth to a six-year high in February is not necessarily a positive for the economy because it is a lagging indicator. But it does at least suggest the Fed’s balance sheet... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s central bank hints at rate cuts Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today dropped its clearest hint yet that interest rate cuts are on the way after it lowered its growth forecasts for this year and pledged that monetary policy would be... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Another rate cut likely The MPC is likely to use the recent confirmation that GDP growth slowed in Q4 and the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for another interest rate cut at the conclusion of its... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will cut rates this year The RBNZ took a surprising dovish turn when it left the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% today, indicating that the next move is likely down. Given that we are more downbeat about the outlook for... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets right to price in rate cuts While our GDP growth forecasts are far below consensus, the narrowing and even outright inversion of parts of the yield curve in the past month suggests that investors also have little faith in the... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary reluctantly hikes interest rates Today’s very small interest rate hike in Hungary was the least that policymakers could do to show their commitment to the inflation target. But so long as key euro-zone export markets don’t weaken... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rate cut (another) hit to CBN credibility Today’s rate cut was another signal that Nigerian policymakers are prioritising monetary stimulus over their own inflation target. We doubt that this cut – which will probably be the first in a cycle... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How would the DNB respond to more ECB QE? If the past is anything to go by, a fresh round of ECB QE would lead to upward pressure on the Danish krone. We think Denmark’s Nationalbank would react with a combination of FX intervention and rate... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
