US Economics Update Economic growth slowing below trend The weak incoming data mean that economic growth is on track to slow below its 2% potential pace this quarter. That kills off any remaining prospect of further Fed rate hikes and, with economic growth... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to keep rates on hold until beyond 2020 We have removed the single 25bp interest rate hike that we had pencilled in for Sweden this year, and forecast rates to remain unchanged at their current level into 2021. In fact, with risks to... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Shift in RBA’s stance increases chances of rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 5th March. While the Bank should reiterate its view that inflationary... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Mueller may overshadow Trump, Kim and Powell Next week is shaping up to be a busy one, when congressional testimony by the Fed’s Chair, the delayed publication of fourth-quarter GDP and the second Trump-Kim summit could all be eclipsed by the... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for Indonesia’s current account? Indonesia’s current account deficit should narrow this year, but not by enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates, as some analysts are now predicting. 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of February, to 3.9% y/y, brings the headline rate back into the central bank’s 2-4% target range for the first time in almost two... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mixed signs from the Swiss industrial sector The improvement in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q4 suggests that the wider economy returned to positive quarterly growth at the end of last year. Nonetheless, while the data appear... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weaker growth, central banks’ dovish turn Data published over the past week provided further evidence that the region’s economies slowed at the start of this year. This, coming alongside lower inflation, has resulted in a dovish shift by... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly MPC minutes, farmer handouts, Kashmir The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s 7 th February policy meeting – in which rates were cut – reveal a significant difference of opinion between MPC members on the outlook for core inflation. We share... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity expected to slow The latest data paint a mixed picture of the performance of the Swiss and Nordic economies at the end of 2018, with signs of weakness in Switzerland and Sweden offset in part by robust quarterly GDP... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation up to mid-February, combined with the ambitious pension reform presented to Congress yesterday, will keep interest rate hikes off the table in the coming... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Further rate hikes likely in Tunisia, the Qatar blockade The Tunisian central bank hiked its key policy rate aggressively this week and we think that further steps will be needed to correct the country’s large economic imbalances. Meanwhile, the UAE has... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates to remain on hold this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today, and given the improved performance of the rupiah as well as the less hawkish tone of the central bank’s press conference, we are... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Central banks take a dovish turn The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in many emerging markets, combined with growing expectations for looser monetary policy in the developed world, has prompted a dovish... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Pre-election loosening to provide short-lived support Measures to loosen both fiscal and monetary policy announced this month could provide a small boost to demand in the near-term. The finance ministry made a clear bid in the interim budget to shore up... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected outturn for Swedish inflation in January underlines our view that the Riksbank will be in no rush to raise interest rates again. Indeed, with core inflation remaining... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
