China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The key takeaway from today’s policy announcements at the opening of the National People’s Congress is that the leadership are still trying to balance efforts to support growth with concerns about... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: chances of rate cuts strengthening February’s drop in inflation to within the target range, and the appointment of a dovish new central bank (BSP) governor, increases the chance of a rate cut next quarter. But the surprise pick of... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s optimism won’t last long The RBA remained fairly confident when it left rates on hold today at 1.50% but we expect that as the data deteriorate this year the Bank will take a more dovish view. And before the end of the year... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won’t ignore decent pay growth forever One reason why we think the Monetary Policy Committee will raise interest rates further than most forecasters expect – assuming a Brexit resolution is reached – is decent pay growth. We think it will... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation at post-financial crisis low EM inflation slowed to its weakest pace since the Global Financial Crisis in January and it will remain lower over the course of the year in most countries. This is likely to prompt policymakers to... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat to central bank independence? Central bank independence seems to be increasingly under attack, raising fears that the success of central banks in anchoring inflation and inflation expectations in recent years could be reversed. We... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Turkey inflation data for February are unlikely to be enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later this week. We expect the... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices in the eight capital cities have now fallen 8.9% from their peak making the current downturn the largest in Australia’s modern history, and we expect prices to fall by at least another 6%... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to cut macro forecasts, leave policy unchanged The ECB is likely to reduce its forecasts for economic growth at its meeting next week and to again stress that it has the necessary tools to respond if the recent slowdown worsens. But we think it... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Data scrutiny to destroy case for policy tightening The latest communications from advanced economy central banks imply that they have shifted away from a normalisation path towards closely monitoring incoming data to ascertain whether additional... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rates in Egypt and Tunisia head in opposite directions Interest rate moves in Egypt and Tunisia this month highlighted the important role that balance of payments positions are playing in monetary policy decisions. In Egypt, tighter fiscal policy and the... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set for an extended pause The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.75%, but sounded a little more worried than previously about the outlook for the economy. We are sticking with our view that interest... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Soft inflation points to rates staying low for longer Inflation has fallen across the region at the start of this year, and is likely to stay relatively soft in the coming months. One common driver of weaker inflation has been lower fuel inflation. But... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on the side-line Given the weakness of the latest economic data, the Bank of Canada is set to remain on the side-line next week. It will probably reiterate that further interest rate hikes will eventually be needed... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? The lesson from Turkey over the last few years is that it takes time for political pressure on the central bank to have negative macroeconomic consequences. With this in mind, while recent... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed unlikely to hike rates again this cycle Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the FOMC’s “patient” mantra in his testimony to Congress today, but we think the Fed is already done hiking interest rates. With GDP growth slowing below potential... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
