China Economics Weekly PBOC restarts FX sales, state media get new buzzword The PBOC has been hiding its efforts to support the renminbi over recent months. But a release this week showed the clear hand of the central bank: the PBOC’s balance sheet for September reveals the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ to slow bond purchases, but not due to US US insistence that provisions against currency manipulation be a part of any future trade deal with Japan has raised suggestions this week that Japanese policymakers, particularly those at the Bank of... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Tightening cycle to be quicker than most expect The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to increase its policy rate by 25bp last night to 2.75%, suggested that a gradual tightening cycle would lie in store over the next 12-18... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to lay groundwork for tightening While the Riksbank, the Norges Bank and the ECB are likely to keep interest rates unchanged next week, we expect them all to signal tighter policy ahead. The recent rebound in underlying inflation... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity & Spending (Sep.) Official GDP growth slowed last quarter consistent with broader evidence that the economy is cooling. There are some early signs in the September data that policy support is starting to gain traction... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to stick to the script amid mixed opinions The ECB has certainly given some mixed messages over recent weeks, with some Council members judging that the first rate hike should come during next summer while others assert that Q4 2019 is more... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook SNB and Riksbank policy to diverge The era of record-low interest rates is nearly over in Sweden, but it is a long way from finished in Switzerland. The Swedish economy is powering ahead, generating inflationary pressure that the... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from a no deal Brexit would be modest While a disorderly no deal Brexit might, depending on its nature, deliver a significant short-term blow to the UK economy and financial markets, any global fallout would probably be small. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A rate hike in Korea is not a done deal The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates unchanged today, but appeared to leave the door open to a rate hike soon. However, with growth set to slow, trade tensions building and inflation likely to... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to hike as trade uncertainty lifted The markets are convinced that the Bank of Canada will hike its overnight rate by another 25bp to 1.75% at next week’s policy meeting and it isn’t hard to see why. Economic growth has been solid this... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery losing steam Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen a touch in 2019, but growth across the region will remain weaker than consensus expectations. We think that growth in Nigeria will slow... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Nigerian inflation remained essentially unchanged in September, which supports our view that – despite recent hawkish language – policymakers will leave their key rate on hold over the coming months. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q3) The Bank of Canada’s latest Business Outlook Survey shows that growing capacity constraints are boosting investment intentions, which will reinforce expectations that the Bank will raise interest... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: strong baht will not stop rate hikes There are good reasons for the Bank of Thailand not to hike interest rates at its next meeting, as it currently appears determined to do. But currency strength is not one of them. 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
