Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Brexit still holding the MPC back As the Brexit circus rumbles on the Monetary Policy Committee’s interest rate announcement on Thursday 21st March will not receive the usual attention. After all, the Committee will keep a low profile... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Three takeaways from the NPC Premier Li spoke to the press at the close of the National People’s Congress (NPC) today. He offered further details on the timing and scale of policy support – smaller than in previous cycles but... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Twenty years of ZIRP, and counting Just over two decades after it first cut rates to zero, the Bank of Japan today left its policy settings unchanged and reiterated that the ultra-loose stance will be maintained for the foreseeable... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM rally stalling, likely to go into reverse The rally in EM assets of the past few months has started to falter in recent days on the back of some poor economic data around the world, and signs that a US-China trade deal may be further away... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to hike, but rates on hold elsewhere The Norges Bank is all but certain to increase interest rates to 1.0% at its policy meeting next week. In contrast, we expect policymakers in Switzerland and Iceland to leave rates unchanged at their... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The slight rebound in February’s wholesale price inflation is unlikely to prevent the RBI from cutting rates again next month. However, there is good reason to think that underlying inflation will... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TLTRO-III to support bank funding, but not economy The ECB’s new “TLTRO-III” programme should help to prevent credit conditions from tightening next year. But any boost to lending growth is likely to be small. 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Weaker data rule out additional rate hikes With interest rates on hold, the focus at next week’s FOMC meeting will be on officials’ updated economic projections, which are likely to show a lower expected path for GDP growth and the fed funds... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to be forced into more QE in 2020 We now think that a combination of sluggish economic growth, low inflation, and monetary policy loosening in the US is likely to prompt the ECB to re-launch its net asset purchases next year. 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in Swedish inflation in February lends further support to our view that the Riksbank will keep interest rates on hold at least into 2021. In fact, with core price pressures subdued, and a... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rate cuts still on the cards in Egypt The jump in Egyptian inflation in February has reduced the chances that the central bank will loosen policy at this month’s MPC meeting, but subdued core price pressures and strong capital inflows... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect Talk of “nationalising” the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) put pressure on the rand last week. The move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have no effect on the bank’s... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) The sharp drop in lending last month reversed much of the jump in January. With the trajectory of credit growth still pointing to further economic weakness, we think the People’s Bank will need to... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank rows back from further rate hikes The Bank of Canada admitted this week that it had been caught out by the broad-based nature of the recent economic slowdown. But its forecasts continue to envisage a strong rebound in growth, which we... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The slump in payroll employment growth in February reinforces the message from the incoming activity data that economic growth is slowing below its 2% potential pace in the first quarter. That makes... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
