Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from this week’s EM central bank meetings The fall in oil prices and shift in interest rate expectations in the US and Europe seem to have brought EM monetary tightening to an end. While most central banks aren’t in a rush to loosen policy... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s change of heart might be overdone The Bank of England drove a bulldozer through its near-term projections this week as it ratcheted up the severity of Brexit uncertainty and the corresponding impact on the economy in its forecast. We... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai politics upended, central banks turn dovish The nomination of Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Varnavadi (sister of the current king) as a prime ministerial candidate in Thailand’s upcoming general election, has completely changed the... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to strike a dovish note next week At its meeting next week, the Riksbank is likely to deliver a dovish message, perhaps hinting that even the single rate hike that it has pencilled in for this year is now in doubt. 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Russian rates likely to be down The less hawkish nature of the Russian central bank’s statement means that we no longer expect an interest rate hike in the coming months. Instead, with inflation likely to return to target in 2020... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA puts rate cuts back on the table The RBA changed tact this week and shifted away from its long-held tightening bias to a neutral stance on interest rates. This move was accompanied by a new set of downgraded economic forecasts, which... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI changes tack The RBI was able to point to a fall in inflation to justify its rate cut this week. But it also took a more sanguine line on the risks posed by still-high core inflation. We believe this will prove to... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish rates to stay on hold despite krone weakness The Danish krone is now close to the centre of the central bank’s exchange rate band – a level at which it has in the past unilaterally raised interest rates. However, we think it is likely to leave... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone slowdown worries Czech National Bank The Czech National Bank’s post-meeting communications made clear that concerns about the external environment resulted in interest rates being left on hold – rather than hiked – today. Given the Bank... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC follows the Fed, but may ultimately go it alone The Bank of England today emulated the Fed by leaving interest rates on hold, sounding more dovish and hinting that fewer rate hikes are in the pipeline. But if we are right in thinking that GDP... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: May interest rate cut looking more likely The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates unchanged today, but with inflation set to continue falling back over the coming months, we think that the BSP will soon start to unwind... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI delivers pre-election rate cut The RBI’s new governor Shaktikanta Das has delivered what the Modi government was hoping for. The “calibrated tightening” stance was jettisoned at his first policy meeting today in favour of a rate... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Slowdown will keep rates on hold until 2021 The Bank will be weighing up the impact of a tighter labour market but weaker GDP growth when it leaves interest rates at 1.75% on Wednesday. It’s unlikely that any of the recent data will cause the... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Scope for some EM rate cuts even if risk premia rise We expect EM risk premia to rise this year as global growth slows, something which has often been associated with EM central banks raising interest rates. But big currency falls and surges in... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US growth to slow even if Fed has stopped tightening Even if the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates sooner than we originally envisaged, we doubt that will prevent a marked economic slowdown this year. After all, that dovishness was partly prompted... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
