Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish and Russian markets start to settle Turkish financial markets rallied this week amid signs of improving foreign relations and easing strains in the banking sector, but the latest data releases add to the evidence that the economy is... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) The further decline in core inflation in September was a little disappointing and, against a backdrop of slower economic growth, will ensure that the ECB remains very cautious in its approach to... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly African Rates: Loosening cycle spluttering to a halt Central banks across Africa held their rates unchanged this week, strengthening our view that the region’s long loosening cycle has now come to an end. Nigeria’s election cycle will get into gear next... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle not over yet August’s rise in inflation and signs of weaker capital inflows swayed Egypt’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold last night but, if we are right in expecting inflation to drop back over the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC stands pat, on-budget fiscal support maxed out The People’s Bank clearly doesn’t feel under great pressure to “follow the Fed”. It left its policy rates on hold this week after the US Fed raised rates and we expect it to cut rates in the coming... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Shifting policy mix points to economic slowdown Boosted by the fiscal stimulus, GDP growth is still on track to be a solid 2.8% this year but, as that stimulus fades and the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, we expect growth to slow to 2.2%... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed still going it (almost) alone We think the Fed is likely to raise interest rates three more times by the middle of next year. By 2020, however, we suspect that Fed officials will reverse course and cut interest rates in response... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s revised IMF deal The larger-than-expected increase in the size of Argentina’s revamped IMF credit line reduces debt rollover risks and is likely to lead to a rally in local markets when they open later today. The... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf to enter EMBI, another Egyptian dollar debt sale? JP Morgan’s announcement that it will include five GCC economies in its EMBI dollar bond indices should provide a further fillip to foreign investment in the region’s financial markets. Even so, we... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s central bank in no rush to raise rates Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.375% against a backdrop of strong economic growth and low inflationary pressures. The fairly dovish tone of the CBC’s... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes likely in the Philippines Today’s 50bp rate hike in the Philippines comes in response to a further rise in inflation and is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. We are expecting rates to rise by at least a further... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Growth stumbles, policymakers turn hawkish Figures released over the past month showed that the South African and Angolan economies both contracted in the first half of the year, with South Africa entering a technical recession in Q2... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes likely in Indonesia Today’s 25 basis point rate hike by Bank Indonesia is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. With the rupiah set to remain under downward pressure over the coming months, we expect at least two... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy rates set to be hiked again Ever since starting its rate-hiking cycle in June, the RBI made clear that the future path of monetary policy will be determined by incoming data. With GDP growth surging to a two-year high in Q2 and... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ keeps the faith in optimistic forecasts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the faith in its relatively optimistic forecasts for the economy while leaving interest rates at 1.75% for the 22 nd month today, but you could argue that the... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed pressing ahead with rate hikes The Fed stuck to the script today, pushing ahead with another rate hike and signalling through the accompanying statement and economic projections that it will raise interest rates four times between... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
