Global Central Bank Watch Shifting out of normalisation mode Signs of weakness in the global economy seem to have prompted a significant change of tack from central banks. Even in the US, where growth has so far held up well, the Federal Reserve appears... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile hikes rates but strikes less hawkish tone The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 3.00% last night was slightly less hawkish than the previous one, and supports our view for fewer rate... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Modern Monetary Theory creates more problems than it solves A new strand of economics called “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) is seen by its advocates as a solution to the flawed economic thinking that contributed to the financial crisis. The ideas behind it... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update "Patient" Fed will be cutting rates next year The dovish tone of the policy statement and press conference following today’s FOMC decision will reinforce expectations that the Fed is almost done raising interest rates. We think a sharp economic... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA to cut interest rates to 1% The RBA will probably reduce its GDP growth forecasts at next week’s meeting but should still signal that the next move in rates will be up. Our more pessimistic outlook for economic activity, the... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q4) Inflation remained below the lower end of the RBA’s target range in the fourth quarter and we think it won’t rise within the target band any time soon. And if GDP growth slows as sharply as we... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to lay groundwork for policy loosening We agree with financial market expectations and the analyst consensus that interest rates will stay on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s meeting on 7th February – the first under the stewardship of... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Composition of the Fed’s balance sheet matters too With the “patient” Fed set to leave interest rates unchanged, attention has shifted to its plans for balance sheet normalisation. But focusing on the terminal size of the balance sheet misses an... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexican interest rates to fall by more than most expect Mexican inflation has been stubbornly above Banxico’s 2-4% target over the past two years, but we think it will fall back within this range by year-end. And with the Fed’s tightening cycle near its... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Going it alone on monetary and fiscal policy Two of our big non-consensus calls are that in time fiscal policy will become more supportive for the economy than the Chancellor’s current plans suggest and that interest rates will rise a bit more... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa rates: Kenya on hold, Ghana & Angola will keep cutting With inflation set to remain within target, we expect that Kenyan policymakers will leave their key rate on hold this year. Their Angolan and Ghanaian counterparts, however, will continue their easing... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slightly more dovish ECB not a game-changer The turn towards a slightly more dovish tone by the ECB at its meeting on Thursday will have made policymakers at the SNB and the Riksbank even more hesitant to hike rates anytime soon. Next week, we... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slowdown intensifies, ECB slightly dovish The latest batch of business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy may be stalling rather than just slowing. We think the ECB will tweak its forward guidance in March, and will at least consider... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stick with “patient” mantra At next week’s policy meeting, the Fed is likely to reiterate its current mantra that it can be “patient” in waiting to hike interest rates. Admittedly, stock markets have recovered most of the losses... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown worsens, nervous MPCs A raft of weak activity and survey data released this week reinforces our relatively downbeat view on the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe this year. Slowing growth seems to be worrying some... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Growth will pick up, despite faltering Nigeria After a very weak 2018, we expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen this year. The major oil exporters will, of course, suffer the effects of lower oil prices and our growth forecasts... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
