Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could the Fed’s interest rate projections be a mistake? The Fed began publishing interest rate projections submitted by FOMC participants as far back as 2012, but in the past seven years only one maverick official has ever forecast a cut in interest rates... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A further dovish shift from the Bank? During a speech this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz refused to commit to the possibility of further rate hikes and suggested that the neutral range was not a good target for investors to... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly More monetary easing still on the cards Markets no longer expect further monetary easing in China but we aren’t convinced. Headwinds to growth look set to resurface as support from fiscal front-loading wanes, at which stage the stimulus... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Policymakers to pause in April After making some fairly big changes in early March, the ECB will probably be happy to leave things as they are at next week’s meeting. President Draghi will have no choice but to give a downbeat... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB worrying about downside risks The account of the ECB’s 7th March monetary policy meeting makes gloomy reading. It confirms that policymakers were worried about downside risks to their growth and inflation forecasts, even though... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI delivers another pre-election gift The RBI has delivered another pre-election gift to the government by lowering rates at a second successive meeting. A low level of headline inflation provided justification for the move. But with core... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Slowdown will force Fed to reverse course We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% to 2.0% this year and only 1.4% in 2020. That weakness should convince the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp, with the first... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Policy not as loose as Poloz thinks The Bank of Canada’s belief that the policy rate is still far below its neutral level looks doubtful. In fact, market pricing implies monetary policy is as restrictive as it was on the eve of the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will soon have to cut rates The Reserve Bank of Australia sounded more cautious when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today. With the full impact of the housing downturn on economic activity yet to be felt, we think the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank signals lower for longer The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold its policy rate at 3.00% on Friday night signalled that rates are likely to stay on hold for longer than they had previously... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi dovish, mixed bag of data Speeches by policymakers this week suggest that the ECB is likely to provide more policy accommodation within the next six months or so. All the more so as the latest survey data continue to point to... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates, further tightening to come The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised its policy rate by a further 50bp to 10.75%, and we think further rate hikes are likely over the coming months due to worries about high inflation and the... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA debt back under review, central banks’ dovish tilt The upcoming Moody’s review of South African debt has raised fresh concerns about a sell-off in the country’s bond market. But we think that these fears are overdone. Meanwhile, central bank meetings... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets coming round to our view on rate cuts The partial inversion of the Treasury yield curve has attracted a lot of attention over the past week, but we have been more surprised by the speed at which markets have started to price in rate cuts... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tiered ECB deposit rate would be a dovish signal If it is introduced (which is far from certain) a tiered deposit rate would reduce the cost of negative interest rates for banks, but it would do so by only a trivial amount. Its main purpose would be... 29th March 2019 · 3 mins read
