Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada sticks to its guns Despite the recent slump in oil prices, the Bank of Canada confirmed today that it intends to raise interest rates at least three more times. However, we think that a deterioration in the economy will... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q4 Following the solid rise in GDP in the third quarter, the recent news has been disappointing. The business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. And following a brief period... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has a little further to run The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept rates on hold today, but continued to flag several upside risks to the inflation outlook in its accompanying statement and maintained the hawkish description of... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Oct.) Sweden’s private sector production data for October suggest that the economy bounced back after Q3’s contraction. This reduces the risk of the Riksbank delaying its first rate hike beyond February. 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Tightening cycle to be quicker than most expect The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.75% last night suggested that this was only a brief pause in its tightening cycle. We continue to think that... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) It would be tempting to blame the slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter on temporary factors. But we believe that the full effects of falling house prices and tighter credit conditions haven’t... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Nov.) November’s falls in headline and core inflation highlight the lack of price pressures in Switzerland. And with GDP growth also weak, the SNB looks set to keep policy looser for longer than investors... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cautious RBA may only hike rates in late-2020 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded a little more cautious when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% for the 28th month. That supports our view that rates will not rise until late in 2020... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What would it take to convince the Fed to pause early? On balance, we still think that the Fed will raise rates twice in the opening six months of 2019, taking the fed funds target range to between 2.75% and 3.00%. The renewed weakness of core inflation... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico blames Amlo, commodities driving BRL again The minutes to Banxico’s latest interest rate meeting send a clear message that the recent policy shift under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) will result in further rate hikes. Elsewhere... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit polarises the outlook for interest rates The Bank of England’s harrowing assessment of the consequences of a “no deal ” Brexit grabbed the headlines this week. But it was designed to be an extreme scenario, and based on some implausible... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Powell put and Trump’s gut Fed Chair Jerome Powell's language earlier this week prompted some in the markets to claim he had taken a sudden dovish turn, possibly in response to pointed criticism from President Donald Trump. We... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT sounding hawkish, Trump renews auto tariff threat The hawkish minutes from the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) November meeting reaffirm our view that the central bank will raise rates by 25bp at its December meeting. Meanwhile, the Korean government’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil lower, Russia’s response, Polish rates Lower oil prices will benefit most countries in Emerging Europe and, for the major loser, Russia, oil at $60pb is manageable – although we do think that it will agree with Saudi Arabia to cut oil... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) We doubt that November’s decline in euro-zone inflation will cause the ECB to alter its plans for a gradual normalisation of monetary policy, with asset purchases set to end next month. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: rate hikes next year look unlikely While the Bank of Korea (BoK) hiked its policy rate today for the first time in a year, this is unlikely to mark the start of a tightening cycle. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
