US Economics Weekly Underlying weakness will keep the Fed cautious There were plenty of positive headlines for the US economy this week, with GDP growth accelerating in the first quarter, durable goods orders surging in March, and the S&P 500 hitting a record high... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank takes a chance on QT For now, the Riksbank is in the peculiar position of trying to ease and tighten policy at the same time. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued, we expect policy tightening... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does a change in the BoE Governor matter? While the next Governor of the Bank of England may change lots of things within the Bank, the economic data will remain the biggest driver of monetary policy. And if Labour won the next general... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank signals rate cut is imminent The dovish nature of the Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement has prompted us to bring forward the interest rate cut that we had pencilled in for Q3 to June. Further ahead, we forecast that... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly History suggests the RBA will cut rates in May The easing in underlying inflation this week prompted a sharp decline in market interest rate expectations. That makes sense because an equally weak inflation print prompted the RBA to cut interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Revisiting the impact of higher oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC unlikely to see the Brexit delay as a reason to hike If the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wanted to raise interest rates from 0.75%, the six-month Brexit delay provides it with a window to do so. More likely, though, is that the MPC remains in a state... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC brings policy easing on to the agenda The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at today’s meeting was widely expected, although changes to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is starting to consider... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates to be left unchanged this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and there was little indication in the statement that it is likely to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. We expect rates to... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank still too optimistic about repo rate hikes The dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance is a step in the right direction. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued over the coming years, we still think that... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain loose for the foreseeable future The Bank of Japan made it very clear that it will keep policy settings loose for at least another year. And while we expect GDP growth and inflation to disappoint, we think that concerns about the... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank gives up on future rate hikes By dropping any reference to future rate hikes today, the Bank delivered its most dovish policy signal in two years. While the Bank remains optimistic about economic prospects in the second half of... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How often do EM central banks respond to currency falls? Turkey’s central bank seems to react like clockwork by tightening monetary policy when the lira falls sharply, but other EM central banks respond much less frequently than is commonly believed. Most... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Next move still likely to be a cut The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting. Chair Jerome Powell may acknowledge in his post-meeting press conference that downside risks to the outlook are fading. But... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Stuck in the middle lane The six-month delay to Brexit until 31st October 2019 has put the brakes on interest rate hikes and left the economy travelling in the middle lane, with GDP likely to rise by 1.5% this year. But... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since 2015 Regional GDP growth is set to slow to its weakest pace since 2015 this year and our forecasts for most countries are below consensus. Weakness in the euro-zone will weigh on the highly-open economies... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
