Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) Last month’s rise in South African inflation was almost entirely due to fuel prices, so we still expect that the SARB will keep its key rate unchanged at its meeting tomorrow. 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA can hike while Fed cuts Australia’s economy has become less sensitive to conditions in the US as their trade links have diminished. The upshot is that the RBA should be able to hike interest rates in 2020 even if our... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Oil price fall to boost current account position As one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, India should be a key beneficiary of the recent slide in global oil prices. If prices remain lower, as we think likely, the oil import bill will... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Policy to loosen in a “no deal” Brexit We think that policy makers would move quickly to help the economy to get back on track in the event of a “no deal” Brexit. Despite Mark Carney’s hints to the contrary, the MPC would probably cut... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Households can cope with rate hikes (in most cases) Households’ balance sheets are mostly in good shape and so are unlikely to cause any major trouble. But households in a few economies would be vulnerable if interest rates were to rise by more than we... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Swine fever hogs headlines, but impact still small The spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China’s leading pig-rearing province (Sichuan) last week is an alarming development. But despite its rapid expansion across the country (the disease has... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI and government signal tentative truce The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government found common ground on some of the points of contention between them at the Bank’s board meeting yesterday. But key issues remain unresolved, and the... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Hungary’s National Bank tighten policy? We’ve argued for a long time that the monetary stance of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) is far too accommodative, and it finally appears that tightening is on the horizon. The complex nature of the... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Thailand slowed sharply in Q3, and is likely to struggle for momentum in the quarters ahead due to a combination of weaker external demand and a faltering tourism sector. 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank still on course for December hike October’s weaker-than expected inflation data, published this week, are unlikely to deter the Riksbank from raising interest rates in the coming months, with a December hike most likely in our view... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: inflation to drop, external risks building Recent dovish comments from the Deputy Governor of the central bank of the Philippines (BSP), Diwa Guinigundo, which mention falling inflation expectations and the BSP having the “the flexibility to... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Land reform escalates, SARB will hold rates next week South Africa’s government has taken a big step towards the expropriation of land without compensation, but fears that land reform will disrupt the economy are overblown. Meanwhile, given weak economic... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly What would be the impact if Governor Patel quit? Indian media has been awash with reports this week that RBI Governor Urjit Patel could quit his post at the Bank’s board meeting on Monday. We think this is unlikely but if he were to resign, local... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tosh analysis & good news from labour market The Australian Labor Party’s fiscal proposals may not be quite as restrictive as we had thought. But we still believe that fiscal policy would be tighter if Labor wins the next Federal election... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank shrugs off rising inflation The decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its policy interest rate on hold confirmed that the MPC is paying more attention to weak underlying price pressures than the recent spike in headline... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage gains revised away The contraction in Japan’s economy in Q3 should prove short-lived. But the income data released alongside the GDP figures provide a more lasting reason for concern. The Bank of Japan had been able to... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
