Bank of Japan Watch Bank to remain on the side lines While the tone of the incoming data has been a little more positive since the March meeting, we still expect GDP growth to slow sharply this year. However, many on the Board remain concerned about the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices. (Q1) The easing in headline inflation in Q1 increases the pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut rates at their next meeting in May. And with weak growth set to keep a lid on inflation, we think they will cut... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele’s legacy As CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele’s term draws to a close, we’ve taken a look at how his controversial decisions worsened Nigeria’s recent economic crisis. Given President Muhammadu Buhari’s views on... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Argentina This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Argentina’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would convince the Fed to cut rates? The economy is still in stronger shape than it usually was when the Fed started cutting interest rates in the past. Based on the Fed’s previous behaviour, however, the economic slowdown that we expect... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Slower growth after the election Growth in India is likely to slow as policy tightens after the general election. Even so, it should still be the best performing major emerging economy in the coming years. 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weaker core inflation reinforcing Fed’s dovishness The March consumer and producer price inflation data released this week highlighted that underlying inflationary pressures continue to fade. That hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Fed, with the March FOMC... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish tone will need to be followed by action The ECB struck a moderately dovish tone at its policy meeting this week, but with economic growth still fairly slow it will need to follow its words with actions. Meanwhile, industrial production data... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Stagnation in Sweden, Norges Bank hawkish Private sector production data for February, released this week, added to the evidence from other indicators that Swedish economic growth slowed sharply at the start of 2019. We think that the Rikbank... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Lower rates won’t prevent economic slowdown The sustained drop in Treasury yields since early November is one reason why we have upgraded our economic forecasts for 2020, but we do not think that will be enough to prevent economic growth... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: weak growth to prompt loosening from MAS The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its policy settings unchanged, but given the worsening outlook for the economy, we think it will loosen policy at its next meeting in October. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Recovery will stall in 2019, pick up next year Economic growth across Africa as a whole will remain weak in 2019 due to very poor performances from Nigeria and South Africa. Conditions will probably improve next year, but regional growth will be... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New Brexit deadline, new forecasts The second delay to Brexit, to 31st October 2019, and developments overseas have altered the assumptions that underpin our UK economic forecasts. As such, we have tweaked those forecasts. The main... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt policy easing We expect GDP growth across Emerging Asia to be very weak this year, with a number of countries set to grow at their weakest rates since the global financial crisis. A key drag will come from falling... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA tightening a double-edged sword for the ARS The Argentine central bank’s pledges to keep monetary policy tighter for longer have helped to stave off a run on the currency in recent weeks. But by keeping the economy weak ahead of October’s... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
