India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q1) The softening in underlying inflation puts increasing pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates. We still expect the RBA to cut rates in August but the risks of an earlier cut have increased. 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Rising inflation won’t prompt interest rate hikes Polish inflation is likely to rise over the coming quarters, but we don’t think that will prompt a policy response. With growth set to slow next year and the ECB likely to relaunch QE, we expect that... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Services slipping as manufacturing stabilises There are tentative signs that US and global manufacturing may be stabilising, but the latest surveys suggest that activity in the domestic-focused services sector is weakening. 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed signals for the Bank A slew of data releases this week presented mixed signals for the Bank of Canada ahead of next week’s policy meeting. Although core inflation has picked up and the economy probably performed a bit... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Beautifully behaved The unemployment rate is close to the natural rate, inflation is close to the target and GDP growth is close to the economy’s potential rate, but interest rates are well below most estimates of the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank on hold, Finland coalition talks to drag on The Riksbank is all but certain to keep its repo rate unchanged at -0.25% at its policy meeting next week. Meanwhile, coalition negotiations following last week’s election in Finland are likely to... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook In the shadow of the euro-zone Weak growth in the euro-zone overshadows near-term prospects in Switzerland and the Nordics. We expect activity to slow in most countries this year and to stay sluggish in 2020. As a result, price... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Stable inflation, Weak Q1 in SA, Emefiele’s legacy Soft inflation readings across Africa this week supported our view that policymakers will cut rates in key economies. New figures added to the evidence that South Africa stumbled in Q1, while Nigerian... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why two cuts may not be enough As the economic outlook has softened the RBA is inching closer to a rate cut. The analyst consensus has now come around to our view and foresees two 25bp cuts by early next year. But we think that the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Mobile tariff cuts add to drag on inflation Inflation will probably turn negative yet again over coming months once we strip out of the impact of October’s sales tax hike. However, that partly reflects one-off price cuts that have been flagged... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea’s next move to be a cut The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% today. But, while it sounded less upbeat on the economy, we still think the BoK is too optimistic on the outlook for growth. With growth... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) The solid employment gain in March doesn’t resolve the tension between weak activity and healthy labour market data. Our view is that the drag from the housing downturn will eventually win the upper... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Economic growth to remain weak GDP growth in the euro-zone is likely to be only slightly stronger this year than in the second half of 2018. Hopes for a sharp rebound in export demand will probably be disappointed, meaning that the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Policy on hold, but rate cuts coming The weakness of the recent business surveys suggests that the Bank of Canada will strike a dovish tone at its meeting next week. The Bank is unlikely to start talking about interest rate cuts just yet... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy faltered in early 2019 Retail sales figures for February added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy struggled in the first months of the year. Growth will probably pick up later this year, but it will remain weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
