Japan Economics Update BoJ will keep policy unchanged The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated and we think it won’t announce major new measures over the coming months. 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would financial repression look like in EMs? Several EMs in Latin America, as well as South Africa, Nigeria, India and Turkey could use financial repression policies to deal with the legacy of higher public debt burdens resulting from the... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Recovery underway as Singapore heads to the polls The main priority for Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), which is certain to win tomorrow’s general election, is ensuring a strong recovery from the crisis. There are good reasons to... 9th July 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka opts for 100bps cut, more easing likely The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut both its deposit and lending rates by 100bps to 4.50% and 5.50% respectively at its meeting today, and given the poor outlook for the economy, we think the... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation unlikely to be a pressing concern Daily price data suggest that food inflation has eased over recent weeks and, with demand also likely to remain depressed, inflation does not appear to be a pressing concern. The focus of policymakers... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Bank to stand pat as it presents new forecasts As the latest high-frequency data and surveys look encouraging, and policy actions to date have helped to pull corporate and provincial borrowing costs back down to pre-virus levels, we do not expect... 8th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to stay the course The Bank of Japan is likely to leave policy settings unchanged over the coming months as strains on financial markets have eased and loan demand has started to slow again. 8th July 2020 · 8 mins read
India Economic Outlook The long road back to normality India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the... 7th July 2020 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Update More easing to come from Malaysia’s central bank Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) cut its main policy rate by 25bps to 1.75% today, and with the economic recovery still in its infancy, we doubt this marks the end of the central bank’s easing cycle. 7th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may yet have to expand bond purchases The RBA sounded more optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today. But with the recovery set to remain bumpy and inflation likely to weaken more sharply than the Bank is anticipating, we... 7th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Wage growth weakened further in May, but we think household incomes are recovering as furloughed workers either return to work or receive their mandatory leave allowance. 7th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Shift to online spending should outlast virus impact Online sales surged during the lockdown and rose further even as the Australian and New Zealand economies were opening up again. We suspect online sales will remain high which means measures of... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Renewed spike in virus cases to prevent full recovery The May activity data were consistent with our below-consensus forecast of a 9% q/q drop in Q2 GDP. Consumption should rebound more forcefully over the coming months as households receive cash... 3rd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (May) Retail sales rose above pre-virus levels in May and probably kept rising in June. As such, a sharp rebound in consumption in Q3 following Q2’s slump is all but guaranteed. However, services spending... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will Poland’s central bank do next? Poland’s central bank appears to have become concerned about the strength of the zloty recently and the negative impact this could have on the pace of the economic recovery, suggesting that it is... 2nd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Lending facilities offering vital support This month has seen a further shift among the world’s major central banks from essential liquidity provision to recovery support, with a focus on uptake of the various lending programmes. The results... 2nd July 2020 · 8 mins read
