Emerging Europe Economics Focus Low interest rates will be the new normal in Russia The neutral interest rate has become one of the hot topics in Russian monetary policy over the past year and the downward revision to the central bank’s estimate of the neutral rate in July marks the... 26th August 2020 · 24 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
RBA Watch Bank to resume bond purchases in earnest The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t keen on providing more monetary stimulus and instead wants the government to do the heavy lifting. As such, the Bank will certainly keep policy settings unchanged... 25th August 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus is once again proving costly for banks The return on assets of Chinese banks fell to a record low last quarter after they heeded policymakers’ calls to step up lending and sacrifice profits in order to lower borrowing costs for struggling... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI dividend, agriculture outlook The RBI’s annual dividend transfer to the Finance Ministry will do little to ease the strains on the public finances, and the central budget deficit still looks set to widen sharply this year. On a... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New MPC will have more work to do The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show that the MPC – of which three members are now due to step down – has turned notably more hawkish on the inflation outlook. But there are... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery Following a huge drop in Q2, GDP is set to rebound sharply this quarter. The second virus wave already shows signs of slowing again and we think it merely brought the recovery in domestic demand to a... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to leave policy on hold for several months The account of the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting suggests that there was a strong consensus in favour of the current policy settings. Absent a big surprise in the economic data or fresh financial... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: bar for policy rate hikes is very high Turkey’s central bank kept its key policy interest rates on hold today and, while the accompanying statement acknowledged growing upside risks to inflation, it looks like that the focus will remain on... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more rate cuts coming after “prudent pause” The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.25% today, but with the pandemic weighing heavily on the economy, we doubt the Bank has finished easing. 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank set for a prolonged period at zero This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key interest rates on hold at zero was never really in doubt. We still think it more likely than not that the Bank will leave rates on hold... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update More cuts coming in Sri Lanka The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left both its deposit and lending rates on hold at 4.50% and 5.50% respectively at its meeting today, but given the poor outlook for the economy and mounting... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Little appetite for further LPR declines Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Given signs that the focus of monetary policy has shifted to containing financial risks on the back of the relatively rapid economic... 20th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to resume easing soon Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.0% suggests that it is waiting to see if the recent stabilisation in the rupiah holds. Provided it does, we think further easing... 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE still reluctant to cut rates, for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers remained cautious about delivering more monetary stimulus. That said, with the... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
