RBA Watch RBA to cut rates faster and more The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the continued tightening of the labour market when it leaves rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd April. But we’ve become even... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Prospects for government bonds remain brightest in US Given the prospects for monetary policy, we forecast that that the rally in government bonds will continue in the US; run out of steam in Germany and Japan; and reverse in the UK if a “no-deal” Brexit... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed too late to prevent slowdown By making it clear that interest rates will not be raised this year and that quantitative tightening will start to wind down earlier than previously suggested, the Fed was even more dovish this week... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR likely to cut rates before the end of this year The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish tilt today has prompted us to bring forward some of the interest rate cuts that we had been anticipating in 2020. We now think that the policy rate will be lowered... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone likely to have grown slowly again in Q1 This week delivered more data which suggest that the euro-zone economy grew at a meagre pace in Q1. And the Composite PMI is now at a level where the ECB has often loosened monetary policy in the past... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway going it alone, but tightening cycle to be short In a week when the Fed called time on its tightening cycle, and further signs of weakness in euro-zone activity lent extra support to our view that the ECB will ultimately have to do more to ease... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Delay: What’s new and what’s not? The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Monetary policy likely to prevent weaker NOK We are now more hawkish than the consensus about the outlook for monetary policy in Norway this year. But we don’t expect the krone to keep strengthening, as we forecast that oil prices will fall. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy likely to prevent weaker NOK We are now more hawkish than the consensus about the outlook for monetary policy in Norway this year. But we don’t expect the krone to keep strengthening, as we forecast that oil prices will fall. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A deeper cut & immigration limitations We now believe GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2019, which would be well below the analyst consensus of around 2.5%. And we suspect that the recent uptick in the unemployment rate in New South Wales... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US market implications of the Fed’s policy shift Although investors have become more dovish about the outlook for US monetary policy in the wake of this week’s FOMC meeting, we think that they are underestimating future rate cuts given the grim... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit decision will stir the MPC one way or another How Brexit pans out will dictate the direction and timing of the next move in interest rates, so it was unsurprising that the Monetary Policy Committee kept a low profile today by voting unanimously... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: no more tightening, but cuts unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today, and there was little indication in the statement that it is likely to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. We expect rates to... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland and Norway Policy Decisions (Mar.) Today’s decision by the Norges Bank, to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, came as no surprise, but policymakers struck a more hawkish tone than expected. While the Bank is now likely to... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s central bank to keep policy on hold Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate unchanged today at 1.375% against a backdrop of weak economic growth and low inflation, and gave no indication in its statement that it will... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: rate cut still likely in May The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) left rates unchanged today at Governor Diokno’s first meeting, but also sounded more hawkish than we had anticipated. Nevertheless, with inflation set to fall... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
