India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Mar. 2021) The faster-than-anticipated acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in March was driven by a surge in fuel inflation, but we think it should fall back soon enough. And with the recent jump... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tighter monetary policy on the horizon The speed of the vaccination rollout has been disappointing and brief, localised lockdowns have set back the recovery in both countries. But vaccine supply should improve over the coming months which... 15th April 2021 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to alter policy this year The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and given that the recovery still has some way to go, the BoK is likely to leave policy accommodative for the rest of 2021. 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates in 2022 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stuck to its dovish stance when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to raise rates towards the end of next year. 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: monetary policy to remain on hold in 2021 The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left policy on hold today as advanced Q1 GDP data showed the economy rebounded further. While GDP is set to continue recovering at a decent pace, a persistent... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) After an uptick in February, the slowdown in credit growth resumed in March. Hawkish signals in the government’s work report suggest that the deceleration will continue as policymakers focus on... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Ecuador votes, Banxico’s doves, rising virus cases Voters head to the polls in Peru and Ecuador on Sunday which could lead to a populist shift in both countries. In the former, political risks may have a growing adverse impact on the economy and... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC window guidance, census data gems The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking... 9th April 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly QE or not QE isn’t really the question The RBI's new bond purchase programme announced this week has led to comparisons with quantitative easing (QE), but there appears to be some subtle differences. In truth however, it matters little... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Increase in ECB QE underwhelming so far The account of March’s ECB meeting showed that the decision to increase asset purchases was agreed by all members, but that some were reluctant to do much more. In practice, purchases haven’t risen... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Some market implications of central banks going “green” In recent years, and particularly since the start of the pandemic, the pressure on central banks to address climate change has increased. This Update considers the potential implications for financial... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: capital controls would probably be ineffective Turkey’s large external vulnerabilities mean that aggressive rate cuts by the central bank (CBRT) would run the risk of sharp and destabilising falls in the lira. A probable next step by policymakers... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
RBNZ Watch Subdued data won’t faze the Bank New Zealand has probably experienced a second technical recession over the past couple of quarters. Even so, the labour market continues to recover and inflation is in good shape. So the Bank shouldn... 7th April 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long while yet The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today amid the surge in COVID-19 cases, and committed to keeping policy “accommodative to support and nurture the recovery”. Given this... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dovish RBA to expand QE by another $100bn in June The Reserve Bank of Australia stuck to its dovish stance despite the strength in recent data so we reiterate our view that it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn in June. 6th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Booming housing & labour markets The RBA and APRA seem to be washing their hands of responsibility for skyrocketing house prices. But we think the likely surge in credit growth in the months ahead means that APRA will be forced to... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
