Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain cautious despite stronger run of data The economy is performing better than the Bank of Canada previously expected, but the outlook remains challenging. We expect the Bank to keep policy unchanged next week and anticipate another fairly... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Lebanon stuck between a rock and a hard place The outlook for Lebanon’s economy is going from bad to worse. The most immediate threat is that the country could find itself caught in the crosshairs amid escalating tensions between the Gulf... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit events raise risk economy is in limbo for longer The reaction to Theresa May’s “new” Brexit deal suggests that the chances of a deal have fallen and the chances of another delay, a no deal, no Brexit and/or a general election have all risen. It’s... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling inflation expectations another worry for ECB The recent fall in financial market measures of inflation expectations may be a bit misleading, and is not matched by a comparable fall in households’ inflation expectations. But it is nonetheless... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further rate cuts in Iceland unlikely The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to cut interest rates by 50bp to 4.00% came as a surprise. While it was prompted by a deterioration in the economic outlook, inflation expectations remain high... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Easing cycle will restart in Q3 Nigerian policymakers voted to hold their key rate at 13.50% today, but the governor’s suggests that they will continue to loosen policy later this year. The governor frequently stressed the need for... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Where should interest rates be? A policy rule suggests that for the time being the financial markets may be justified in taking a relatively sanguine approach towards the risk of rising interest rates. But should a Brexit deal be... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA won’t launch QE anytime soon The RBA has made it clear that quantitative easing is its preferred tool once interest rates reach the effective lower bound. But we suspect that the Bank would first cut interest rates from their... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates again, further tightening to come Concerns about high inflation and the country’s large current account deficit mean today’s 150bp rate hike by Pakistan central bank (SBP) is unlikely to be the last in the current tightening cycle. 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariffs alone won’t change the Fed’s plans President Donald Trump clearly isn’t the only one hoping that the Fed will ride to the rescue amid the escalating trade dispute with China, with the markets now convinced that interest rates will be... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian economy takes a breather We suspect that the weather-related weak patch in Norwegian activity in Q1 will prove temporary. Meanwhile, following the recent flare-up in trade tensions and the Swedish Riksbank’s dovish shift, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines loosens further, Pakistan back to the IMF The recently announced cut to the reserve requirement ratio in the Philippines should provide a boost to economic growth and suggests that further cuts to the policy rate are likely soon. Meanwhile... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will not wait much longer before cutting rates Employment growth has picked up over the last couple of months, but with the labour force expanding even faster the unemployment rate has started to rise. With GDP growth below potential and... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Echoes of 2018 This month’s escalation of US-China trade tensions and renewed concerns about Argentina and Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities have clear parallels with 2018, when these same factors triggered a sell... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rate cuts unlikely despite dovish shift Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and hinted that it may consider loosening policy over the coming months. However, with the rupiah likely to lose more ground... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
