Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank won’t wait for the ECB The Norges Bank has a history of beginning to tighten policy earlier than the ECB and we think it will follow that pattern again this year. Meanwhile, although it’s not the most likely scenario, we... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
RBI Watch Policy to remain loose for a long time yet We agree with financial markets and the analyst consensus that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 4 th June, particularly given that the worst of... 27th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to alter policy soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and given that the recovery still has a way to go, the BoK is likely to leave policy accommodative for at least the next few... 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think 10-year yields will rise gradually in most cases While the RBNZ is gearing up to hiking rates next year, we think that most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until early 2023... 26th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals policy tightening next year The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded more optimistic at today’s meeting and signalled that it will start to hike rates in the second half of next year, in line with our long-standing forecast. If... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN keeps inflation-fighting tools on the shelf Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting, opting to emphasise the fragile nature of the economic recovery over elevated inflation. With price... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates to remain low for some time to come Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% today and signalled that it was in no rush to adjust its monetary policy settings again this year. We expect interest rates to remain low to... 25th May 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to extend QE in July The Reserve Bank of Australia will still sound dovish at the upcoming meeting on 1 st June, paving the way for an extension of its bond purchase programme at the July meeting. But amidst early signs... 25th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The stock market rotation may have further to run Even if, as we suspect, the outperformance of the energy and materials sectors soon comes to an end, we expect the broader rotation in equity markets to continue over the next few years. 24th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s policy shift, Turkey’s tight fiscal stance Guidance from Hungary's central bank this week suggests that it is taking the fight against inflation much more seriously and we now think that a monetary tightening cycle will start over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank monitoring housing for signs of “exuberance” The latest Financial System Review suggests that the Bank of Canada’s concerns about high house price inflation are a key risk to our view that it will wait until early 2023 before raising interest... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics BoE to unwind QE before it raises interest rates The rapid rebound in economic activity revealed by this week’s data releases has started to prompt some questions about when and how the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy. Our answers are... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We doubt inflation will send the equity rally into reverse While inflation fears have taken some steam out of the US stock market rally recently, we still think that equities in the US, and elsewhere, will make further gains over the next couple of years. 20th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB laying seeds of policy normalisation Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, while laying the foundations for normalising monetary policy. We think that rate hikes are some time off as the Reserve... 20th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank may welcome strong loonie after inflation spike The Bank of Canada has voiced concern about the loonie although, following the signs of emerging inflationary pressures in April, it will probably be more welcoming of the disinflationary impact of... 20th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Over the worst? New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but some solace can be taken from the fact that they have dropped rapidly over the past couple of weeks back to their level in mid-April. The share of... 20th May 2021 · 9 mins read
