Asia Economics Update What would US rate cuts mean for Asia? Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate cuts coming in Brazil, Argentine political jostling The weakness of the Brazilian economy and rapidly falling inflation mean we now expect an interest rate cut, and we think there is a window of opportunity for Copom to act at next week’s meeting... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: easing cycle has further to run The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish communications accompanying today’s decision to cut the key rate support our view that more monetary loosening lies in store over the coming quarters. We expect... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Perma-doves at the SNB, Norges Bank to hike again The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its monetary policy settings unchanged on Thursday was something of a formality. But whereas some commentators have suggested that the Bank is out of... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but, even so, the drop in the headline rate in May will be used by the MPC as further justification of its... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market not as rosy as the RBA thought The RBA has moved closer to our view that the natural unemployment may be as low as 4.0%. That means unemployment would need to fall considerably before wage pressures begin to emerge. And we think... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Markets have fingers in their ears about rate rises There isn’t much chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday 20th June, but we expect the MPC will use the opportunity to repeat... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold for now, but next move to be down As expected, Swiss policymakers maintained their expansionary monetary policy at their June policy meeting. But the recent shift to a looser bias in the US and the euro-zone only strengthens our view... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Price level targets wouldn’t solve policy problems The past month has seen a significant change in tone from the world’s major central banks and in expectations of their policies. As fears over trade tensions have mounted and economic data have... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Rate cuts coming, but not until September We expect a further slowdown in economic growth to eventually prompt the Fed to cut interest rates, particularly with underlying inflation muted. But it is hard to see that happening before the... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank won’t ease policy anytime soon A looming slowdown in GDP growth and the prospect of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve has prompted speculation that the BoJ will have to ease policy by the end of this year. However, the Bank... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT inches towards easing, but lira risks linger The Turkish central bank provided further hints at today’s meeting that it is moving towards monetary easing. But policy moves will hinge on the lira and, with a number of flashpoints on the horizon... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tweaking our (already dovish) ECB forecast Mr Draghi’s comments at the ECB’s press conference last week suggest that the Governing Council is gearing up to loosen monetary policy a bit earlier than we had anticipated. We now think it will... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus How will the Bank respond to the next downturn? The risk of a recession is arguably higher in Canada than elsewhere and the low level of interest rates limits the ability of the Bank of Canada to respond. Even if the Bank utilises unconventional... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rate cut likely to be a one-off We think that the surprise decision by Chilean policymakers to cut the policy interest rate by 50bp on Friday night to 2.50% will prove to be a one off. Interest rates are likely to remain unchanged... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: underlying price pressures are contained The rise in Russian inflation in late-2018 and early-2019 was driven largely by higher food prices and a VAT hike. To overcome these distortions, we’ve created a measure of ‘underlying’ inflation... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
