India Economics Weekly Signs of financial stress emerge The sharp widening in credit spreads over the past few days will have concerned policymakers and - like last year - a forceful response is likely if further signs of financial stress emerge. But while... 30th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Fed remains dovish despite strength of recovery Although it took a more upbeat tone on the economic outlook and acknowledged that inflation has risen in its statement released after today’s FOMC meeting, the Fed offered no hints that it was... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA still likely to extend bond purchases further The Reserve Bank of Australia will revise down its near-term forecasts for the unemployment rate at its meeting on 4th May, but it will probably still signal that inflation will fall short of its 2-3%... 28th April 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2021) The weakness in underlying inflation in Q1 is consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce a third $100bn round of asset purchases before long. And it suggests that the... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way in unbalanced recovery A strong vaccine rollout in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain, and Morocco should mean that containment measures are eased soon, paving the way for sustained economic recoveries. But the... 27th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals further tightening to tackle inflation Russia’s central bank (CBR) hiked its policy rate by 50bp, to 5.00%, at today’s meeting and the accompanying statement strengthened the central bank’s hawkish message about the need for additional... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly How damaging will be the new restrictions be? With the economic damage from last year’s lockdown still fresh in the memory, there appears to be little appetite for a return to extreme measures to curb the ongoing outbreak. But given the very... 23rd April 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest policy tightening a long way off The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s April policy meeting – in which interest rates were left unchanged – show that the MPC is committed to keeping policy accommodative to support the economic recovery... 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update No room for further rate cuts in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% today, and despite the downbeat outlook for the economy we see little room for further rate cuts this year. 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as PBOC relies on other policy tools Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Given that official efforts to rein in credit are being achieved by other means, we do not expect any changes to policy rates in the... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank preparing for prolonged hold After tweaking a range of policy measures in March, the Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged in April. By addressing the side effects of ultra-loose policy, the Bank has set the stage for... 20th April 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Financial stability risks to come back onto the radar The RBA is sticking to its upbeat assessment of Australian households’ financial resilience. But if credit growth picks up and lending standards slip, we think APRA may intervene before long. We now... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT opening the door to rate cuts The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate at 19.00% was accompanied by reassuring language that the MPC, under new governor Sahap Kavciouglu, aims to bring down... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
