Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) Our sales to new listings ratio suggests that house price growth will moderate before long. Even so given the sharp increase in recent months, we now expect prices to rise by around 7% in 2020 and 5%... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack December tariffs likely to be averted As things currently stand, the US is due to extend its punitive tariffs to cover nearly all goods imported from China in two weeks’ time. But the Trump administration has appeared keen to avoid that... 29th November 2019 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish policymaking worsens, CEE currencies slip Interventionist policymaking in Turkey has come back onto the radar this week. This is likely to lead to a misallocation of resources and adds to the reasons to think that the country’s next crisis... 29th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly VAT cut in Sri Lanka, Japan-Korea trade spat The decision by Sri Lanka’s new president to cut the rate of VAT from 15% to 8% will provide a significant boost to the economy, but will put increased strain on the country’s fragile public finances... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian rates on hold, Kenya cuts, SAA losing altitude Monetary policymakers in Nigeria and Ghana kept their key rates on hold this week, while their Kenyan peers loosened policy. We expect that the next move in all three countries will be a cut... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two cuts by the RBA won’t be enough The Governor of the RBA in a speech this week confirmed that the floor for interest rates is 0.25%. While that announcement came as a surprise to some analysts, it was in line with our own thinking... 29th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, but more easing likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) left rates on hold today but kept the door open to further easing. With growth set to stay subdued and inflation likely to remain weak, we have pencilled in one more 25bp rate... 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Core inflation hits multi-year highs across CEE Headline inflation has eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but that was entirely due to falling food and fuel inflation; core price pressures have continued to... 28th November 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Regional giants both stumble Figures released over the past month painted a very downbeat picture of economic conditions in Africa’s two largest economies. Growth in Nigeria did, admittedly, pick up a touch in Q3. But activity... 28th November 2019 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: loose policy sowing seeds of a sharper adjustment The recent strong performance of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will probably continue for a few more years as fiscal and monetary policy remain loose. But this is likely to cause some of the... 28th November 2019 · 18 mins read
RBI Watch Rates to drop to lowest in almost a decade We agree with financial market and analyst expectations that rates will be cut by another 25bp at the conclusion of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) policy meeting on Thursday 5th December. This... 28th November 2019 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA should reach the rate floor & begin QE in 2020 The economic data have continued to deteriorate in line with our forecasts. In particular, the unemployment rate rose again to 5.3% in October and real retail sales declined in Q3 despite the... 27th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily RBA likely to launch QE in 2020, boosting Aussie bonds In a much-awaited speech on unconventional monetary policy, RBA Governor Philip Lowe set a high bar for launching quantitative easing (QE) in Australia. But against a backdrop of stubbornly-low... 26th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Interest Rate Nigerian policymakers left their key rate unchanged today, preferring to use unconventional policy rather than rate cuts to boost the economy. We suspect that most of these measures will fail... 26th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Housing revival likely to keep Bank on side-lines The labour market is starting to show cracks and GDP growth is on track to slow below the Bank of Canada’s forecast in the fourth quarter. This will increase the pressure on policymakers and means... 26th November 2019 · 7 mins read
