US Chart Pack Fed’s dovish shift embraced by markets Although only a minority of Fed officials anticipate that interest rates will need to be cut at all this year and not a single official believes that rates will need to be reduced by more than 50bp in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC softens tone on interest rate rises Given the drop in GDP in April and the fall in inflation back to target in May, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from 0.75% today. What’s more, the tone of the... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Taiwan to be left on hold Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.375%, and is likely to be in little rush to cut interest rates despite the poor outlook for growth. We expect interest rates to be... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further policy loosening on the cards Amid signs of a recent slowdown in economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting in early June, taking the repo rate to its lowest since 2010. What’s... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update BI hints at rate cuts, but prolonged easing unlikely Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.0% but the decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio and the dovish shift in the central bank’s rhetoric suggests interest rates are likely... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines likely to resume easing cycle soon The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% today, but it clearly left the door open to further easing. With inflation likely to fall back further over the coming... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank leaves door open for another rate hike This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25% came as no surprise. But while policymakers left the door open for further rates hikes in 2019, we think there... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan sticking to its guns The Bank of Japan is showing no signs of shifting to a more dovish stance, despite the impending sales tax hike and moves towards easing by the Fed (and the ECB). As long as there is no sharp downturn... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank sets a high bar for easing The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) cautious statement from last night’s meeting will disappoint the markets, which had expected Copom to lay the ground for the start of an easing cycle. With the... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ will wait and see GDP growth in Q1 was stronger than the RBNZ had forecast and the Bank will have been encouraged by the government’s stimulatory Budget. As such, the RBNZ is likely to take a ‘wait and see’ approach... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed breaks new ground forecasting rate cuts The Fed is now leaning towards lower interest rates later this year, but we still believe that the first rate cut will be delayed until September, with another 25bp reduction coming in December and... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank unlikely to cut rates further, for now Investors have slashed their expectations for interest rate hikes in Sweden over the coming years and are now broadly in line with our previously well below consensus view. But while we now forecast... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Monetary easing unlikely to drive a sustained rally Hopes that much looser monetary policy, particularly in the US, will prevent more weakness in the global economy have supported emerging market (EM) assets recently, but we doubt that this will last. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi spells out ECB’s dovish intentions Mr Draghi’s speech at the ECB’s conference this morning is the clearest indication yet that the Bank will cut interest rates and relaunch its asset purchase programme in the coming months if, as we... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rising wage growth won’t prevent policy loosening Wage growth has strengthened in several advanced economies despite the global economic slowdown. But, outside the UK, we do not expect this to prevent monetary policy loosening. Strong productivity... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nationalbank to match ECB rate cut, eventually The small interest rate cut that we now forecast by the ECB in December is unlikely to be matched immediately by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB). But given that upward pressure on the krone is now likely... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
