India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in February to a two-year high will do little to dampen growing market expectations of rate hikes in the very near future. However, we still... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus The 14th Five-Year Plan China’s new policy blueprint seeks above all to promote a large and hi-tech manufacturing sector, both as a defence against decoupling by the West and as a source of productivity gains. Policymakers... 15th March 2021 · 27 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA underlines determination to keep policy loose The Reserve Bank of Australia this week pushed back against mounting expectations of policy tightening both via its market operations as well as via a dovish speech by Governor Lowe. We reiterate our... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Markets are jumping the gun on RBI rate hikes Financial markets appear increasingly convinced that the RBI is on the cusp of monetary tightening, perhaps due to fears of a re-run of the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But India isn’t as vulnerable to a... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
BoE Watch Rising gilt yields won’t push Bank of England into action Given the improving economic outlook, we doubt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will respond to higher gilt yields by stepping up the pace of its QE purchases at its next meeting on Thursday 18 th... 11th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of EM rate hikes? Recent currency falls and rises in inflation have all but guaranteed interest rate hikes in Turkey and Brazil next week, and Russia’s central bank is likely to lay the groundwork for tightening too... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank likely to defer widening of tolerance band The pendulum seems to have swung back against the Bank of Japan making any changes to its yield target next week or indeed any major changes at all. That is most likely because the Bank doesn’t want... 11th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation now too strong for the CBR to ignore A series of strong inflation readings in Russia have put the central bank’s ability to meet its inflation target over the next year under threat and brought forward the prospect of monetary tightening... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Lowe lifts bar for policy tightening further Today’s dovish speech by RBA Governor Lowe supports our view that the RBA is set to keep monetary policy accommodative for a long time to come. But concerns about the functioning of the bond market... 10th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Lula ruling, Brazil’s debt problem and the BCB The annulment of left-wing former President Lula’s criminal convictions has significantly increased the likelihood of a looser fiscal stance, which could put Brazil’s public debt back onto an... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC: Taking away the punch bowl The reports delivered at today’s opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) confirm that with the COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror the focus of China’s leadership has shifted away... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA taking higher bond yields in its stride The Reserve Bank of Australia’s half-hearted response to the surge in government bond yields underlines that it is not overly worried about the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy. But... 5th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia set to remain on hold Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate on hold at 1.75% today, and we have taken out the cut we had pencilled in for this year. However, with the economic recovery likely to be slow... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: monetary easing will depend on currency The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left policy on hold today amid continued volatility in global financial markets. Given the poor outlook for the economy, the CBSL will want to resume its easing... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP extends pause, policy to stay loose for some time The Polish central bank’s latest forecasts, published this afternoon, tell a story in which the economic recovery will strengthen over the coming years and inflationary pressures will pick up strongly... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 15.6% y/y in February, is likely to mark the peak and we expect inflation to fall steadily over the next six months or so. But... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
