Global Economics Update Indonesia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Indonesia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch Subdued data keep RBNZ on track to cut rates in May We expect the recent string of soft economic data will be enough for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates to 1.50% when it meets next week on Wednesday 8th May. Since the RBNZ shifted... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed downplays drop off in core inflation Although the FOMC left the target for the fed funds rate unchanged at between 2.25% and 2.50% today, as expected, it unveiled a slightly unexpected 5bp cut in the interest on excess reserves (IOER)... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More monetary tightening lies in store in Romania The National Bank of Romania’s decision to maintain strict control over money market liquidity marks a step in the right direction to addressing the large build-up of economic imbalances. But we think... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Slump in inflation to prompt cut to 1.25% We suspect that the sharp fall in underlying inflation in the first quarter will be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates to 1.25% on Tuesday 7th May. And given... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz in no rush to re-consider rate hikes There was never any doubt that the Bank of Canada would keep policy unchanged when it met earlier this week, although its decision to drop any reference to future interest rate hikes from its policy... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Underlying weakness will keep the Fed cautious There were plenty of positive headlines for the US economy this week, with GDP growth accelerating in the first quarter, durable goods orders surging in March, and the S&P 500 hitting a record high... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank takes a chance on QT For now, the Riksbank is in the peculiar position of trying to ease and tighten policy at the same time. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued, we expect policy tightening... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does a change in the BoE Governor matter? While the next Governor of the Bank of England may change lots of things within the Bank, the economic data will remain the biggest driver of monetary policy. And if Labour won the next general... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank signals rate cut is imminent The dovish nature of the Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement has prompted us to bring forward the interest rate cut that we had pencilled in for Q3 to June. Further ahead, we forecast that... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly History suggests the RBA will cut rates in May The easing in underlying inflation this week prompted a sharp decline in market interest rate expectations. That makes sense because an equally weak inflation print prompted the RBA to cut interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Revisiting the impact of higher oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC unlikely to see the Brexit delay as a reason to hike If the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wanted to raise interest rates from 0.75%, the six-month Brexit delay provides it with a window to do so. More likely, though, is that the MPC remains in a state... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC brings policy easing on to the agenda The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at today’s meeting was widely expected, although changes to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is starting to consider... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates to be left unchanged this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and there was little indication in the statement that it is likely to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. We expect rates to... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
