Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan sacks Agbal, risk of currency crisis grows The shock decision by Turkey’s President Erdogan to sack central bank governor Naci Agbal late on Friday is likely to trigger large falls in the lira when markets open on Monday. It looks like the... 20th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB will be in no rush to tighten policy South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to be in a rush to follow other EM central banks in tightening monetary policy. We think the policy rate will be on hold this year and probably in 2022... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ rearranges furniture to prepare for prolonged hold The Bank of Japan’s policy review today contained various nudges to policy levers but ultimately marked neither a tightening nor an easing of policy. Governor Kuroda was keen to emphasise in the press... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market doesn’t mean RBA will tighten The stronger than expected labour market data will have been a nice surprise to the RBA with the unemployment rate now below its year-end forecast. But we had always expected the unemployment rate to... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Renewed virus outbreak a key downside risk The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a three-month high this week does not appear to be a major threat to India's economy yet as cases are still comparatively low and the outbreak has predominantly... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the steepening US real yield curve The renewed sell-off in the Treasury market since the conclusion of yesterday’s FOMC meeting may seem hard to square with the message that monetary policy is likely to remain very loose for a long... 18th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank unlikely to flinch as inflation moves above target We expect inflation to hit 3.5% in April and then to sit at the upper end of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range for most of the rest of the year. Given the likelihood that inflation will drop... 18th March 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update No pushback against higher gilt yields, but little prospect of rate hikes The Monetary Policy Committee did not follow in the ECB’s footsteps by stepping up the pace of its QE purchases. Instead, it echoed the message of the Fed by emphasising that rate hikes are still a... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT overdelivers to reassure investors Turkey’s central bank didn’t disappoint investors, delivering a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike (to 19.00%) today, and we think that it will keep monetary conditions tighter than most... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s tightening cycle likely to be sharp but short The Brazilian central bank’s 75bp hike in the Selic rate (to 2.75%) and hawkish statement point to a front-loaded tightening cycle in the coming months. We now expect a further 200bp of hikes (to 4.75... 18th March 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: no rush to hike rates despite rapid recovery Taiwan’s central bank appears in little hurry to raise interest rates despite the strong performance of the economy, and today’s decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.125% came as no... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: little prospect of rate hikes Recent volatility in financial markets meant Bank Indonesia (BI) was never likely to cut interest rates for a second consecutive month at its meeting today, and further rate cuts look off the agenda... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Tunisia heading for a debt restructuring Tunisia’s public finances have deteriorated further during the COVID-19 crisis and, with the government unlikely to be able to push through much-needed fiscal austerity, a debt restructuring looks... 18th March 2021 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The surge in employment in February is consistent with our view that the Australian labour market is tightening much faster than most expect. 18th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Lending standards remain sound Housing finance commitments have surged in recent months pointing to a rise in credit growth before long. But we don’t think lending standards have been eroded so this shouldn’t stop the RBA from... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does Turkey need to do to bring inflation down? Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) looks set to hike interest rates further this week, and the experience from other EMs suggests that it will need to keep real interest rates elevated for several years to... 15th March 2021 · 6 mins read
