Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hints at looser policy, Italy in the dock President Draghi’s comments at this week’s press conference were consistent with our view that the ECB will eventually re-start its QE programme. Meanwhile, Italy looks set for another collision with... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Headline CPI inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in May, which will be used by the central bank as vindication of its change to a more dovish policy stance in yesterday’s... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economic outlook is subdued regardless of tariffs Our forecast that the housing downturn would weigh on economic activity and force the RBA to cut rates was proven right this week. And given recent data suggest there is considerable spare capacity in... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB inching towards more QE The measures announced by the ECB today were underwhelming, but policymakers have been considering how to respond to any further economic weakness. All the signs are that they would favour more QE... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI signals further loosening to come The RBI cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting today. Arguably more important, it laid the groundwork for continued loosening in the second half of the year. If soft surveys are correct in... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Banks still likely to pass on rate cut in full Some of Australia’s banks have lowered mortgage rates by less than the reduction in the RBA’s cash rate. That’s hard to justify in light of the recent fall in funding costs. We think that mortgage... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is it time to give central banks new objectives? The Fed’s conference this week on monetary policy strategy has put central banks’ frameworks back in the spotlight. But even the more radical options being discussed, such as price level targets, are... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may have to cut rates to 0.75% We think that today’s 25bp rate cut may be followed by two additional rate cuts before the year is out. Combined with renewed falls in iron ore prices, that suggests that the Australian dollar may... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP slump & rate cuts, inflation drop vindicates CBK Dovish comments from the South African Reserve Bank this week support our view that an interest rate cut is likely to come as soon as July. Elsewhere, the drop in Kenyan inflation in May backed up the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts not the start of aggressive easing cycle The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) was able to cut rates today as a result of the resilience of the currency, but we doubt this will last. We think that the rupee will come under pressure again this... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines inflation, Asia’s “currency manipulators” Signs that Philippines inflation continued to tumble in May suggest that the easing cycle there has further to run. Meanwhile, easing is also likely in Malaysia, Korea and Singapore in the second half... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea should change its mind soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its main policy rate on hold today in the face of a clear cut case for looser policy, but we think it will eventually change its stance. With the Bank likely to be looking... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Bank to lay the groundwork for further easing Policymakers are likely to make two significant changes at their meeting next Thursday. They will probably announce that they expect to leave rates at present levels until at least mid-2020, rather... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Three cuts in a row The MPC is likely to use the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for a third consecutive rate cut at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Thursday 6th June. But with a growing... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional growth slumps The raft of GDP data released this month showed that regional growth slowed to just 0.3% y/y in Q1 (from 1.0% y/y in Q4), the weakest pace in two years. While it doesn’t look like sluggish growth will... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
