Global Economics Update PBOC and Fed policy loosening won’t hinge on tariffs President Trump’s claim that the PBOC will loosen policy in the months ahead may prove accurate, but this will be a justified response to a weaker economy and not a direct retort to tariffs. And while... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian inflation? Brazilian inflation has probably now reached a peak and the headline rate should fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. With core inflation still extremely soft, the central bank... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How will policymakers respond to the next downturn? If the next downturn is a mild, cyclical one we would expect the Bank of Japan to cut its short-term policy rate but leave its 10-year yield target unchanged. Fiscal stimulus would probably have to do... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Turkey’s FX reserves The Turkish central bank (CBRT) seems to have become more inclined to use its foreign exchange reserves to support the lira, despite growing scrutiny about the level of reserves. Growing question... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Saudi Arabia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Saudi Arabia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank takes a pause, SNB to cut further The Norges Bank held interest rates on hold at 1.00% at its meeting on Thursday but signalled that it will “most likely” resume its tightening cycle at the next meeting, in June. Meanwhile, the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Tweaks to forward guidance won’t be enough While the major advanced economy central banks have made no significant policy changes in recent weeks, a key theme has been a continued shift in their forward guidance to imply that interest rates... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy and inflation targets The RBA left rates on hold this week while the RBNZ cut. That’s odd as the case for a rate cut looks much stronger in Australia. In any case, we think that rates will need to fall in Australia as well... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA set to be disappointed by the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) sounded a little more upbeat than the statement issued after the Bank kept rates on hold on Tuesday. We still think that the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack April jump in inflation won’t last Euro-zone GDP growth was stronger than expected in Q1, at 0.4% q/q, but we suspect that it will slow again in the coming quarters. Activity was flattered by the comparison with a weak end to 2018 and... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts coming in the Philippines The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) cut interest rates by 25bp today, and further interest rate cuts seem only a matter of time. Given the subdued outlook for inflation and the dovish nature of... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Policy Rate Decision (May) Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 1.00% is just a brief pause in its tightening cycle, with another hike now almost certain in June. With core inflation set to... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian central bank looking through inflation rise Copom’s statement from last night’s meeting highlighted that policymakers are not troubled at all by the recent jump in inflation and, rightly in our view, see it as temporary. If anything, they are... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) The slowdown in credit growth last month underlines the need for further monetary policy easing in order to keep credit expanding fast enough to provide a floor to economic growth. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus SNB to cut interest rates further into negative territory If the ECB re-starts QE next year, as we think is likely, the resulting upward pressure on the Swiss franc would stoke deflationary fears at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and prompt a policy response... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to leave rates on hold this year Despite the downbeat outlook for Thailand’s economy, the central bank (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today. Continued concerns over risks in the financial sector mean that it is... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
