Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lessons from previous easing cycles Past experience suggests that, with inflation near a peak and the economy slowing (alongside pressure from President Erdogan for lower interest rates), Turkey’s central bank will push ahead and ease... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The Fed’s asset purchases are fuelling a continued surge in the narrow money aggregates, but growth in both our M3 measure of broad money and bank lending remain on a downward trend. 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asian central banks in no rush to raise interest rates Unlike in some emerging markets, central banks across Emerging Asia are in no rush to tighten monetary policy. External factors won’t compel policymakers to tighten, and with inflationary pressures... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Central bank mission creep There have been several cases of central bank mission creep in recent months, with policy remits widening to cover areas other than consumer price inflation. The Bank of England is now helping to... 29th March 2021 · 15 mins read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to follow its EM peers EM monetary policy has turned decidedly more hawkish in recent weeks. But, with a renewed surge COVID-19 infections a downside risk to India’s recovery, we don’t think the Reserve Bank will be joining... 29th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the latest EM rate decisions The raft of EM central bank decisions over the last couple of weeks suggests that the door has largely closed on further rate cuts and that the balance will shift (slightly) towards hikes over the... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico begins a long pause The unanimous decision by Banxico’s Board to keep its policy rate at 4.00% is a clear signal that its easing cycle is done and dusted. While this indicates a cautious shift at the central bank, we... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government’s housing moves take pressure off RBNZ New tax policies aimed at reducing the appeal of housing as an investment asset in New Zealand, together with the RBNZ’s macroprudential policies, should lead to lower house price growth in the months... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB shrugs off bond market ruckus Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, breaking a recent wave of EM central bank decisions to tighten policy. We suspect that the country’s weak economic... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP to resume easing cycle later in the year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, and while a temporary rise in inflation means interest rates are set to remain on hold for the next few... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates to remain at 0.5% for foreseeable future The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold at 0.5% today and made clear in its accompanying statement that rates will stay low for the foreseeable future. We think the that the policy rate... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What next for inflation? A rise in headline consumer price inflation over the coming months will do little to temper growing market expectations of imminent rate hikes. But it will largely be driven by fuel price inflation... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to cut the pace of its asset purchases next month The Bank of Canada seems to have signalled that it will reduce the pace of its government bond purchases at its next meeting in April. We now expect it to bring its net purchases to zero by the end of... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Direction shifting towards tightening in Hungary Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its key interest rates on hold today but the tone of the communications could not have been much more hawkish without raising interest rates. The MNB is defending its... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: hawkish minority unlikely to become majority Policymakers in Nigeria opted to keep their benchmark rate unchanged at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting in the face of rising inflation and a weak recovery. We don’t think that a hawkish minority will... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold, PBOC signals preference for other tools Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged today. We have been forecasting the PBOC to hike rates this year but the likelihood of that is diminishing – the PBOC appears to favour... 22nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
