Asia Economics Weekly Spike in inflation nothing to worry about The sharp rise in headline inflation across Emerging Asia is unlikely to be the trigger for the region’s central banks to start tightening monetary policy. The increase is almost entirely due to an... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Household spending rebounded sharply in January as the labour market continued to tighten. However, price pressures remain subdued as the boost from higher energy prices is dampened by weak service... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: should we be concerned about deflation? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory has raised concerns in some quarters that the country could be at risk of a long and damaging period of deflation. There are good reasons to... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Poised for a resurgence? The government’s demonetisation measures have caused growth in India to slow but the economy is set to recover as consumption and investment rebound. Longer-term prospects have also been boosted as... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s rise in German consumer price inflation to 2.2% reflected food and energy effects. Core inflation remained subdued, implying that rising price pressures in the euro-zone’s largest economy... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The PMIs for Emerging Asia in February were mostly encouraging, suggesting that manufacturing conditions in the region are slowly gaining a firmer footing. 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why does Russian inflation keep on surprising on the downside? Russia’s weekly CPI figures have become increasingly misleading, which appears to have resulted in a tendency for forecasters to underestimate how quickly headline inflation would ease. Looking deeper... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Below target inflation leaves little room for error The recent slowdown in all three new core inflation measures suggest that the excess slack in the economy is building. The core CPI-common measure, which tracks the output gap most closely is of... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update January’s inflation jump unlikely to last EM inflation jumped in January on the back of a rise in fuel price inflation. However, this was driven entirely by base effects stemming from the drop in oil prices at the start of last year. These... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) While small business confidence weakened slightly in February, the survey has not been a good to activity lately. We would highlight that firms continue to report pronounced staff shortages while... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) caught most off guard but was in line with our expectations. The statement accompanying the decision was... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The headline inflation rate rose to 2.1% in January, up from 1.5%, largely because of higher gasoline inflation. While some of those gains will be reversed in February, the Bank of Canada will be much... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone PMIs consistent with stronger growth Last week’s PMI survey brought some more good news for the euro-zone economy. Accordingly, due to expectations of stronger growth in Q1, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2017. While the survey... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Feb.) Despite edging down in February, the NIER’s Economic Tendency Indicator still points to a surge in Swedish GDP growth. And with inflation expectations rising far above the Riksbank’s target, the Bank... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Catch-up wage growth is a pipe dream The idea that Australian employees could enjoy a period of “catch-up” wage growth is a pipe dream. It doesn’t stack up in theory and it doesn’t stack up in practice. It’s far more likely that cyclical... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
