Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Dec. 18) & Riksbank Minutes The drop in headline inflation in Switzerland in December is a sign of things to come, as inflation is set to fall to just above zero in the coming months. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Riksbank’s... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Full employment not good enough for BoJ The sales tax hike is likely to trigger a fall in output in Japan later this year but, thanks to counter-measures from the government, the downturn will be much less sharp than after similar tax... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) The pick-up in wage growth in November has probably further to run as the unemployment rate declines ahead of the sales tax hike. But wages may not rise fast enough to meet the BoJ’s 2% inflation... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The softer-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure for November of 0.1% m/m underscores the weakness of the economy and supports our view that some of the optimism about growth prospects... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households well placed to spend more It’s well known that the uncertainty caused by the Brexit bedlam probably contributed to GDP growth easing from 0.6% q/q in Q3 of last year to 0.3% or less in Q4. But it’s less appreciated that should... 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy continues to lose momentum Data released this week suggest that the economy lost more momentum at the end of last year and that GDP growth in 2019 won’t be as good as in 2018. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Dec.) Data released this morning add to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union has shifted down a gear and, with underlying inflation still low, it now looks likely that the ECB will wait... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar set to weaken further We correctly predicted that the Australian dollar would fall to US$0.70 by the end of last year and we think it will depreciate further this year as the prices of key commodity exports fall and risk... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further fall in Turkish inflation in December, combined with the weakness of the latest activity and the recovery in the lira, means that the central bank is likely to press ahead with a rate cut... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation set to fall further Two of the Bank of Canada’s three measures of core inflation, CPI-trim and CPI-median, declined in November. As a result, an average of the three measures fell to 1.9%, the lowest in five months. Base... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the slowdown in inflation in November has further to run. And underlying inflation may not climb much above 0.5% even if domestic demand strengthens... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Uneven recovery hints at weak 2019 Figures released this month showed that Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest two economies remained weak in late 2018, but that activity picked up faster elsewhere in the region. These readings strengthen our... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
