Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank takes hawkish turn, but cuts on the cards The hawkish statement by the Central Bank of Russia that accompanied today’s decision to leave the policy rate on hold has prompted us to revise up our end-year interest rate forecast (to 8.25%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) The sharp rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 9.2% y/y, was due largely to higher petrol and food inflation. The impact of the weaker lira on core inflation has been surprisingly muted so far. At... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rate cut not a done deal Financial markets and a large majority of analysts are braced for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting next week. But, despite the continued damage and uncertainty caused by... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish statement suggests Czech koruna policy to end soon The upwards revisions to the Czech National Bank’s inflation forecasts and the relatively hawkish post-meeting press conference reinforce our view that the Council’s koruna cap policy will end fairly... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC upbeat on growth but relaxed on inflation The first Bank of England “Super Thursday” of 2017 saw the MPC Minutes and Inflation Report strike a cautiously-optimistic tone. That said, while the economy appears to be coping with Brexit... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How worried should we be about inflation? Sterling’s post-referendum fall has clearly put inflation on a steep upward trajectory this year. But there are reasons to think that the forthcoming rise in CPI inflation won’t be too great and that... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Brexit resilience to continue While there are still considerable uncertainties over the economic outlook, we maintain our view that the damage from the UK’s vote to leave the EU will be smaller than most forecasters have... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4), Unemployment (Dec.) & Flash CPI (Jan.) The latest data revealing that euro-zone GDP ended 2016 on a positive note and that inflation rose sharply in January will give the ECB food for thought, but we still expect the Bank to be buying... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response France GDP (Q4, 1st est.) & CPI (Jan., Prov.) Provisional data revealed that the French economy performed fairly well in Q4, while inflation picked up in January. But uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming presidential election looks set to... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jan.) January’s rise in German consumer price inflation to 1.9% reflected energy effects while core inflation remained subdued. Price pressures are weaker elsewhere in the euro-zone and there is still... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Progress stalls Australia will make almost no progress this year with GDP growth once again coming in closer to 2.0% than 3.0%. With growth in New Zealand set to accelerate from around 3.0% to 3.5%, the divergence in... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy robust as election contests take shape Data released last week suggested that the euro-zone economy started 2017 on a pretty strong footing. January’s Composite PMI remains consistent with quarterly GDP growth of about 0.4%, while the rise... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Both headline and underlying inflation weakened in December as the lingering effects of last year’s strengthening of the yen lowered goods prices. But with the yen having weakened markedly in recent... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fuel to push up inflation in most, but not all, EMs A pick-up in fuel price inflation is set to push up headline inflation in many EMs over the coming months. But this is not true across the board. In some countries, including Brazil and Russia, any... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The sharp rise in both headline and core CPI inflation in the fourth quarter is enough to prevent the RBNZ from cutting interest rates further, but it’s not enough to prompt it to raise interest rates... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
