Global Inflation Watch Rebound in inflation is almost over Headline inflation is now above the target in the US and close to it in the euro-zone and UK. We expect the average inflation rate in advanced economies to be fairly stable at around 2-2½% for the... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The further rise in Polish inflation last month, to 2.2% y/y, was driven almost entirely by energy and food price movements, while core inflation remained subdued. Accordingly, today’s data are... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer price inflation accelerated in February for the first time since demonetisation due mainly to a rebound in food inflation. Looking ahead, rising price pressures could prompt the RBI to hike... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s inflation figures offer the first sign that inflation has peaked. We expect that price growth will weaken this year, but will remain above the CBN’s target. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) After rising to a five-year high in February, Swedish headline inflation is set to ease back in the coming months as energy inflation cools. But with signs that underlying price pressures are rising... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The rise in Indian wholesale price inflation in February to its highest rate in over three years supports our view that the Reserve Bank of India will have to reverse course and begin hiking interest... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth picking up Japan’s unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since the mid-1990s and the job-to-applicant ratio is approaching its bubble year peak. Regular wages are rising at the fastest pace in years, and... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Talk of policy tightening will prove premature The Bank of Japan may upgrade its near-term outlook for inflation at its meeting this week. With inflation picking up again, a rising number of analysts now expect the Bank to tighten policy in coming... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian headline inflation in February, to 4.8% y/y, from 5.4% y/y in January, was broad-based and reinforces the case for further significant monetary easing over... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s inflation data revealed that inflation is falling much more quickly than the Norges Bank expected. While activity surveys have strengthened recently, we think that inflation will continue... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would make the RBA raise rates? Although we still believe that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be down, it is useful to consider what would need to happen to prompt the RBA to raise rates. Two scenarios stand out... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Inflation rise won’t stop SNB fighting strong franc The Swiss National Bank will reiterate after its meeting on 16th March that it remains fully prepared to act to prevent any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc in the coming months. Although... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation rose to a seven-year high of 4.9% y/y in February, from 4.7% y/y in January, and, despite the recent rally in the peso, we suspect this will be enough to convince the central bank to... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Feb.) Last month’s stronger-than-expected rise in Czech headline inflation was driven entirely by higher food and fuel inflation and, on its own, is unlikely to be of too much concern to the National Bank’s... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) Egyptian inflation jumped again in February but it is probably now close to peaking and is likely to start falling in the second half of the year. This, coupled with signs that the balance of payments... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) Producer prices rose at their fastest pace since 2008 last month. But consumer price inflation remains well below the government’s 3% threshold. 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
