Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) Data to mid-August suggest that inflation in Brazil is starting to bottom out. That being said, it’s likely to remain well below the central bank’s target over the remainder of this year. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) South African inflation eased by more than we’d expected in July, raising the prospect of two 25bp cuts later this year, rather than the single cut we currently expect. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Has Swedish inflation actually picked up? In recent months Swedish inflation has been artificially boosted by a new method for calculating package holiday prices. While the Riksbank will look through this particular effect, it is nevertheless... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Dollar’s decline to boost exports Just as the dollar’s earlier surge weighed on economic growth last year, the drop back in the exchange rate this year will provide a boost to growth over the next 12 months. The pick-up in global... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Most EM central banks in easing mode Despite the focus in advanced economies on the timing of monetary policy tightening, the majority of EMs remain in easing mode. More EM central banks cut their policy interest rates than raised them... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank lending to remain weak The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 25bp earlier this month, and subsequently called upon commercial banks to pass on the cut to borrowers. But the move is likely to have a negligible... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is it Amazon’s fault that the Fed can’t hit its inflation target? The shift to online sales is having a transformative effect on the retail industry, but does not explain the weakness in core inflation, either this year specifically or the Fed’s more general failure... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increases in headline and core inflation in July are consistent with the recent improvement in economic growth and raise the probability of a second rate hike by the Bank of Canada before December... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling dollar bolsters case for more rate hikes Even if the dollar doesn’t weaken any further, the 7% depreciation in trade weighted terms already seen this year will help support GDP growth via the resulting boost to exports. But the recent moves... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is the Taylor Rule telling us? In recent years, policy rates in advanced economies have been set much lower than the levels implied by John Taylor’s original rule, which he formulated in the early 1990s. But once we account for the... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Toronto housing market down and out Resale housing activity in Toronto plunged more than 40% last month and signs point to continued weakness in August. In similar fashion to Vancouver, resale activity will likely flounder over the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay on hold for a while longer The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today and the accompanying monetary policy statement suggests the central bank is in no rush to adjust rates any time soon. We are maintaining... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
