Global Economics Update Will rising unemployment resurrect the Phillips Curve? Slower global growth will bring the downward trend in unemployment seen in developed economies in recent years to a halt and actually push unemployment up in some countries including the US. This... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya debt increases fragilities, SA inflation supports dovish view Given Kenya’s fragile external position, plans for more foreign currency debt will increase the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. Policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria showed no sign... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit clouds the outlook for consumers The slump in retail sales volumes in December is not too worrying given that it seems to have largely reflected consumers bringing forward Christmas purchases in order to take advantage of ‘Black... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly (Jan.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, combined with the recent rally in the peso, means that we no longer expect a 25bp interest rate hike at next month’s... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation up to the middle of January will give the central bank room to hold off raising rates until there is more clarity on the government’s reform plan. For our... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in South African inflation in December adds to the evidence that the SARB’s much-heralded tightening cycle is now dead in the water. We expect that inflation will remain within target... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) While inflation remained just below target in Q4, it will probably fall further over coming months as the full impact of the recent drop in the oil price has yet to be felt. However, the RBNZ won’t be... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 2.2% y/y in December on the back of weaker food and housing inflation and we expect it to fall back into negative territory in early 2019. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten very slowly We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households upbeat, but still price sensitive Japanese households are more positive about current economic conditions than they have been for many years but they report still being highly price sensitive, and their worries about the outlook have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home sales fall, inflation to drop back The data this week confirmed that Canadian home sales finished 2018 on a weak note, while inflation jumped back up to 2% at the end of the year. Housing sales are unlikely to rebound strongly, while... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s rise in inflation mainly reflected a statistical quirk and will be more than reversed in January. Indeed, we expect inflation to drop below 1.5% in the coming months. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Growth likely to slow further in 2019 The latest manufacturing PMIs add to the evidence that economic growth in Switzerland and Sweden will continue to slow. The Swiss index is consistent with annual growth in industrial production of... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Subdued outlook for exports The relative weakness of the rupee is doing little to boost India’s exporters, who are finding it hard to capitalise given a weakening of global demand and their own capacity constraints. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
