Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) The steady growth in overall labour cash earnings in January masks the strongest increase in base pay in almost two decades. Nonetheless, wages would still have to rise considerably faster to meet the... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) & Chile CPI (Feb.) The small 0.1% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in January is partly payback for a 2.3% m/m surge in December, and we think the recovery should resume over the coming months. Elsewhere, the... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Feb.) Switzerland’s consumer prices data for February revealed that prices are finally rising again. But with the franc likely to strengthen this year, underlying price pressures are set to remain subdued. 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to rise for first time since demonetisation Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in February for the first time since demonetisation, due to a pick-up in food inflation. Looking ahead, rising core inflation could prompt the RBI to... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys point to a strong Q1 Survey data for February suggest that euro-zone GDP growth accelerated in Q1 following two healthy quarterly gains of 0.4% in the second half of last year. After February’s rise, the PMI pointed to an... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) The fall in Russian inflation, which reached a five-year low of 4.6% y/y last month, has further to run and we think the headline rate will reach the central bank’s target by mid-year. Falling... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan have to start tightening soon? Japan’s economy has performed well recently and inflation is set to rise sharply soon. But the spike in inflation won’t last and, with inflation expectations no higher now than when the Bank of Japan... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia entering an era of low inflation The decline in Russian inflation has further to run and we think it will fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. The central bank has adopted an extremely hawkish posture, but this... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year distortions drag inflation down Following a spike in January to a near-three-year high, consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen last month to a six-month low. This should be the nadir for inflation this year. Looking ahead... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Signs of strong global growth continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that the strong start to the year continued in February. The global composite PMI remained close to a three-year high and is consistent with world GDP growth of... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Rising inflation starting to hit households Resilient consumer spending was the main reason why GDP growth held up so well in the wake of the Brexit vote. However, there have been signs that the exchange-rate induced rise in inflation is... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of higher costs will firms absorb? Companies’ margins are starting to bear the brunt of the exchange-rate induced rise in costs. And given the deterioration in consumer confidence, slower employment growth and the strong competitive... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 10.1%, probably marks the peak this year, but the headline rate will remain far above the central bank’s target. Despite the dire inflation outlook, the... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Low labour mobility limiting wage gains The national accounts data show that wage growth has slowed in recent quarters even as the labour market has continued to tighten. With the lifetime employment model preventing employees from... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The small decline in consumer confidence in February is not particularly worrying as sentiment had reached a multi-year high in January. Meanwhile, household inflation expectations have been stable... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
