Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but rising inflation set to trigger hikes The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% was widely expected and, while the outlook for the economy has deteriorated, we still expect rising inflation to... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jan.) The further rise in Czech inflation last month, to 2.2% y/y, reinforces our view that the koruna cap will be removed in the coming months. We see the MPC meeting on 4th May as the most likely date for... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Jan.) In January, the Norges Bank’s favoured measure of inflation fell to a 37-month low. We think that it will fall further, prompting the Bank to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points in the second... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Deflationary threat far from over The Bank of Japan’s preferred measure of underlying inflation fell to a fresh low in December. While the weaker exchange rate and the recovery in commodity prices should result in a rebound in coming... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in January, to 4.7% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, is largely the result of hikes in regulated fuel prices. Nonetheless, core inflation also continued to rise as a... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to maintain dovish tone for now Recent economic data support our view that the Riksbank will raise interest rates this year. But given the recent appreciation of the krona, the Riksbank is likely to maintain a very dovish tone in... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI is right to turn less dovish Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged down in January as price discounting continued following demonetisation. But further ahead, price pressures are set to build. This was acknowledged by... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the US need a strong or weak dollar? We will probably never know whether President Donald Trump really did phone his National Security adviser at 3am to ask whether a strong or weak dollar was good for the economy, but it is a very good... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in January, to 5.4% y/y from 6.3% y/y in December, means that another large 75bp cut in the Selic interest rate is on the cards later this month. Elsewhere, inflation... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation up in January, but rebound unlikely to last A further rise in producer price inflation, which probably hit a fresh five year high in January, is likely to fuel concerns about a pick-up in broad price pressures this year. But we think consumer... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates to rise further than many expect The fairly hawkish post-meeting press conference and upwards revisions to the central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the Romanian MPC is increasingly concerned about the prospect of loose... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, supports our view that, despite the central bank’s recent hawkish rhetoric, interest rates will be lowered substantially this year. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss National Bank tolerating a stronger franc? The recent appreciation of the Swiss franc suggests that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may now be willing to tolerate a (slightly) stronger currency. But we see the franc rising even further to reach... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) Headline wage growth slowed in December as firms cut winter bonuses. While it should pick up again in coming months, a strong rebound is not on the cards. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation is approaching a peak After reaching a 47-month high of 1.8% in January, euro-zone consumer price inflation is set to rise further in the coming months. While we expect headline inflation to surpass the ECB’s near-2%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
