Global Markets Update Rising inflation expectations to lift Treasury yields further While US break-even inflation rates have recently risen, this appears primarily to reflect increased uncertainty about the inflation outlook. As actual expectations for inflation rise and investors... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank maintains dovishness for now While the Riksbank maintained a very dovish tone today, the strength of the Swedish economy and rising inflationary pressures mean that the Bank will soon have to change its stance. We expect the repo... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected decline in South African inflation – particularly core inflation – last month supports our view that the country’s monetary tightening cycle is now over. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to make of the pound’s recent rally? Weaker import demand and a pick-up in foreign investment have pushed the Egyptian pound up by 15% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, and we think the rally may have a little further to... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Coping with higher inflation Growth in household spending is likely to slow over the next few years as inflation rises and dampens growth in real incomes. But loose credit conditions and relatively upbeat sentiment by past... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) CPI inflation took another step up in January and looks set to breach the MPC’s 2% target next month. However, we don’t think that the forthcoming rise will panic the MPC into hiking interest rates... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Italian GDP (Q4), German Consumer Prices (Jan.) Following this morning’s release of German and Italian Q4 GDP data, we are sticking to our forecast that euro-zone Q4 GDP growth will be left unrevised at +0.5%. 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer, Producer & Import Prices (Jan.) Switzerland’s consumer and producer prices data for January provided some hope that the prolonged period of falling prices may finally be over. But with the franc likely to strengthen this year... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Indian wholesale price inflation last month supports our view that the Reserve Bank of India will have to reverse course and begin hiking interest rates much sooner than is generally... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Consumer and producer price inflation both accelerated last month. But we expect both to peak soon and think hopes for a sustained reflation in China will be disappointed. 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Jan.) The jump in Polish inflation last month, to 1.8% y/y, was driven almost entirely by energy and food price movements, while core inflation remained flat. Accordingly, we remain of the view that the... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer price inflation dropped in January as price discounting continued following demonetisation. But inflationary pressures are set to build over the coming months, and we continue to believe that... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policy help or hinder? The response from policy makers is one of the main reasons that the UK economy has so far weathered the Brexit vote well. And there are reasons to think that monetary and fiscal policy can continue to... 13th February 2017 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in Egyptian inflation in January to a 30-year high of 28.1% y/y makes it even more likely that the central bank will raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We now... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Future looks brighter for manufacturing A robust rise in manufacturing activity at the end of 2016 and in the output balance of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey have raised hopes that the sector is getting back onto its feet. Admittedly... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but rising inflation set to trigger hikes The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% was widely expected and, while the outlook for the economy has deteriorated, we still expect rising inflation to... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
