Global Inflation Watch Higher inflation remains elusive Although economic activity has gathered pace this year, and many advanced economies are approaching full employment, there is no evidence of a pick-up in wage inflation. Average earnings growth has... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery continues at the start of Q3 The latest activity data from EMs suggest that the economic recovery continued at the start of Q3. Consumer spending has continued to pick up across most regions, while both industrial production and... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is online retailing keeping price pressures subdued? One reason put forward recently for the weakness of price pressures in Japan is that a boom in e-commerce is keeping a lid on prices. However, we find no evidence that this is having a major impact. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated sharply in August, and looks set to rise further over the coming months. As such, there is no scope for further monetary loosening. 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will tougher sanctions on North Korea work? The United Nations has agreed a new set of sanctions on North Korea, which while falling short of what was originally demanded by the US, constitute the strongest sanctions ever imposed on the country... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) The pick-up in inflation in August took it close to its eventual peak, although it is likely to provide the more hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with ammunition ahead of... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation was above both the Riksbank’s forecast and its target in August. With the strengthening economy suggesting that inflationary pressure is building, we think that the Riksbank will soon start... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Not out of the woods yet Most commentators hailed the Kenyan Supreme Court’s decision to annul the result of last month’s presidential election as a key win for the country’s democracy. This is, as yet, premature. The real... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Egyptian inflation last month, to 31.9% y/y, confirms that it has now passed its peak. We expect it to fall sharply towards the end of the year which should bring interest rate cuts on to... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) & Czech CPI (August) Turkey’s economy had a strong Q2 and growth is set to be even quicker in Q3. But that’s likely to mark the peak in the cycle and we think the economy will slow more abruptly than most expect in 2018... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Aug.) In August, inflation in Norway fell further below the Norges Bank’s target. While inflation should stop falling by the end of the year, it will rebound only slowly. So interest rate hikes are a very... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook to keep ECB cautious The ECB’s new forecasts show that it expects inflation of just 1.2% next year and 1.5% in 2018. As the economy is performing well and core inflation has picked up recently, the Bank should still feel... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stopgap debt ceiling deal makes the Fed’s job harder A number of developments this week – including Vice Chair Stanley Fischer’s resignation from the Fed, the stopgap deal to keep the government funded for only three months and the arrival of Hurricane... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) Chilean inflation rose in August and, with the central bank continuing to talk down the possibility of further policy easing, we expect the benchmark interest rate to be left unchanged at 2.50% at... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Full-time staff shortages point to faster wage growth Part-time wages have been rising at a reasonable rate for a while but, with evidence now building the firms are finding it harder to hire sufficient full-time workers, a pick-up in broader wage growth... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households looking increasingly fragile The slump in real income growth has forced Australian households to reduce their saving rate to a nine-year low in order to continue increasing their spending. This can’t continue indefinitely... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
