India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy controls drive property demand to small cities The resilience of home sales in China (up 18% y/y in June) has raised questions about the effectiveness of government efforts to cool the sector, which have been stepped up in recent months. In fact... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Strong growth, weak inflation We expect the current period of strong economic growth in advanced economies to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. In many countries the... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) While June’s unexpectedly large drop in CPI inflation is unlikely to prove a turning point, it will nonetheless help to keep the MPC’s hawks in the minority. 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi inflation remained in negative territory last month, although the introduction of new “sin” taxes on sugary drinks and tobacco caused the rate of decline ease. And there are reasons to think... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) The weaker tone of the inflation data for the second quarter has already caused the New Zealand dollar to weaken back below US$0.73 and the dollar may yet fall below US$0.70 as the markets realise... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can consumers survive the pay squeeze? With the effects of the lower pound appearing to be fading at the start of the production line, CPI inflation looks to have almost peaked already and we think that it will gradually start to head down... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The slowing of Nigerian inflation in June will soon prompt policymakers to loosen monetary policy. Cuts will come faster than the consensus currently expects. 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower inflation forecasts to underline case for loose policy The Bank of Japan will probably upgrade its assessment of the health of the economy at the upcoming meeting. But downward revisions to the Board’s inflation forecasts will underline that policy... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & IP (Jun.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Jul.) Production data for June confirm that the industrial sector saw its biggest quarterly expansion for three years in the second quarter. Furthermore, while the retail sales and confidence data, also... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly One more interest rate hike at most this year The Bank of Canada’s new-found confidence in the economy and forecast rebound in core inflation have prompted speculation that interest rates might rise much higher this year. But with household debt... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in June, which left the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 1.7%, continues the recent run of soft inflation data. Earlier this week, Chair... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling supporting tourism sector While the fall in the pound has yet to provide a significant boost to overall net trade, it has already started to support the tourism sector. And we think that net tourism spending will provide a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly KORUS renegotiation could benefit Korea The announcement earlier in the week from the US government that it is formally seeking to renegotiate the Korea-US free trade pact (KORUS) is not a big threat to the Korean economy. The negotiations... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The drop in headline Indian wholesale price inflation in June will increase the clamour for rate cuts. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) As underlying inflation is within touching distance of the Riksbank’s target, today’s rise in the krona should be followed by further gains as the remaining doves on the Executive Board come round to... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
