UK Economics Focus When and how fast will the MPC tighten? While there is no urgency for the MPC to dampen inflationary pressures, the extraordinary starting point of policy and general resilience of the economy suggest that UK interest rates are likely to... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The sharper-than-expected rise in Russian inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, was driven by an increase in fruit and vegetable inflation. Core inflation fell to a record low. Accordingly, we still... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack GDP growth still looks to have accelerated in Q2 The incoming economic data appeared to take a bit of a turn for the worse over the past month, with the headline balances of all three Markit/CIPS PMIs falling in June. What’s more, consumer... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Floods add upside risks to inflation outlook We think headline inflation will have risen in June to a five-month high on the back of a further rebound in food price inflation. Looking ahead, while we don’t expect consumer price inflation to rise... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fall in Swiss inflation in June largely reflected lower energy prices. With core inflation holding close to zero, the SNB will stick to its ultra-loose policy stance over the next couple of years. 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in core inflation confined to Germany While euro-zone headline CPI inflation fell to 1.3% in June, the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose from 0.9% to 1.1%. This left it above the 0.8% average recorded... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are economic expansions killed off by rising inflation? It is widely thought that recessions are generally triggered by central banks stepping on the brakes in response to rising inflation. But many recessions have not been preceded by an increase in... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s fears about household indebtedness persist The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting today and retained its fairly optimistic tone on the outlook for economic growth in the... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) & Turkey CPI (Jun.) Last month’s batch of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe suggest that growth in Central Europe remained robust at the end of Q2, while Turkey’s economy strengthened. Meanwhile, the sharper-than... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank can’t ignore low inflation The Bank of Canada’s recent hawkishness doesn’t fit with the weaker core inflation data. Amid further warnings from the BIS about the dangers of sticking too closely to inflation targets when asset... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Politics rocks the Gulf Political developments have dominated the news in the MENA region this month. In Qatar, financial markets have sold off amid a diplomatic spat with regional powers. So far, though, the broader... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Ind. Prod., H’H Spending, Unempl. & Cons. Prices (May) Today’s activity data suggest that industrial production expanded at a decent pace in the second quarter. However, consumer spending appears to have eased a touch last month, while price pressures... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Brazil’s new inflation target The decision to lower Brazil’s inflation target from 4.5% currently to 4.25% in 2019 and 4.00% in 2020 is clearly a step in the right direction, but it’s worth bearing in mind that inflation targets... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s rise in German HICP inflation and a sharper fall in the Spanish rate suggest that euro-zone inflation probably edged down from May’s 1.4%. German core inflation is now rising, but underlying... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is below-target inflation in Norway a problem? The Norges Bank’s latest projections suggest that it is unwilling, or unable, to loosen policy by enough to hit its inflation target. This will weigh on economic growth over the coming years, and... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: rate cuts coming, but easing to be gradual The sharp drop in Argentine inflation to an 18-month low in May is likely to prompt the central bank to shift into easing mode over the coming quarters. But with core inflation likely to be slow to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
