India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) The likely rise in headline inflation in June won’t prevent the MPC – now firmly under the control of doves following the surprise resignation of deputy governor Viral Acharya last month – from... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Shifting down a gear Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep... 8th July 2019 · 21 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Jun.) The renewed drop in inflation in June is likely to continue as the headline rate is dragged down by falling food and fuel price inflation, providing a green light for the central bank to cut rates in... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Jun.) Swiss inflation held steady at a very low rate in June and we expect it to fall to zero during the second half of the year on the back of the stronger franc. With deflationary fears set to come back... 4th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation in June, to 15.7% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank will embark on an easing cycle at its policy meeting later this month. But all hinges on what... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update A deep dive into euro-zone core inflation The jump in euro-zone core inflation in June seems to have largely reflected temporary factors. More generally, a range of measures of underlying inflation suggest that price pressures remain subdued... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will probably cut rates to 0.5% While the RBA lowered the cash rate to 1.0% at today’s meeting, it signalled that it won’t ease policy any further for now. However, we think that the Bank remains too optimistic about the outlook for... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Dovish central banks set to cut rates further he subdued global outlook and weakness in domestic economic activity has caused us to revise down our forecasts for interest rates in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, annual GDP growth slowed... 1st July 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) The Tankan’s all industry index fell at a slower pace in the second quarter than in the first, which suggests that the economy may be past the worst. That said, the slowdown has started to ease... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) While headline HICP inflation came in unchanged in June, at 1.2%, the extent of the increase in services and core inflation was a bit of a surprise. But the increase in core inflation seems to have... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly G20 truce, armyworm epidemic Trump and Xi will meet tomorrow and may agree to hold off imposing new tariffs for the time being. While this would be a positive outcome for China’s economy and markets in the short-run, any gains... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will probably cut rates to 1.0% The RBNZ’s dovish tone supports our view that the Bank will cut rates again before the year is out. In fact, we now think the Bank will cut at its next meeting in August, and once more at its November... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Acharya resignation another blow to RBI credibility The surprise resignation of RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya – one of the most hawkish members of the MPC – boosts the chances of further rate cuts in the near term. But it should once again raise... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The slowdown in May’s inflation was largely broad-based, and we expect it to turn negative by the end of the year. However, the Bank of Japan won’t be overly concerned as this will be mostly driven by... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Fed’s dovish shift embraced by markets Although only a minority of Fed officials anticipate that interest rates will need to be cut at all this year and not a single official believes that rates will need to be reduced by more than 50bp in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation risks shifting to the downside Price pressures have weakened further against a backdrop of worsening prospects for the global economy. The recent fall in the oil price implies that energy effects will drag on headline inflation in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
