Asia Economics Update Malaysia interest rate likely to remain unchanged this year With inflation falling and growth rebounding, it was no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. Looking ahead, we expect that BNM will keep interest... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) The further drop in Indian consumer price inflation in June will increase the clamour for policy loosening. But with inflation now close to bottoming out, we still expect rates to stay on hold over... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s new national inflation series The publication of a national consumer price index by Argentina’s statistics office is a further step towards overhauling its previously discredited inflation data. The short back series limits its... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are we witnessing the end of the GCC? A threat by regional powers to expel Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has sparked fears that the group could be disbanded. A complete breakup of the GCC seems highly unlikely but, even if... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Picking apart the economic costs of Brazil’s latest crisis The economic surveys in Brazil have fallen since the crisis that has engulfed President Temer’s administration erupted in May, but the hard activity data do not yet point to a sharp downturn in the... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling inflation to open door to interest rate cuts in Turkey With Turkish inflation now on a downwards path, it seems increasingly likely that the central bank will start to loosen monetary conditions before the year is out. The easing cycle will probably begin... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen to weaken further US 10-year government bond yields have climbed to a two-month high in recent days and we expect them to rise further in coming months. By contrast, the Bank of Japan has underlined its determination... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Jun) Headline inflation in Norway slowed in June, and we think that it will fall further. Over the next few years, it is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target, so we think that interest rate... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egyptian inflation inched up to 29.8% y/y in June and recent subsidy cuts will cause it to rise a bit further in the next few months. Even so, as the effects of last year’s sharp drop in the pound... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) In June, core consumer price inflation hit its highest level, Chinese New Year aside, since 2011. And after falling since February, producer price inflation stabilised. But with economic activity set... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Structural changes making it harder to hit inflation target The recent drop back in core inflation, even as the unemployment rate has fallen further, adds to the evidence that the Phillips curve has flattened. The reduced sensitivity of inflation to shifts in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico, Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) Mexican inflation rose further above target in June, but there are signs in the breakdown that it is close to peaking. Meanwhile, data also released today showed that inflation in both Brazil and... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Food and fuel inflation likely to drop again Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased again in June, due in large part to another drop in food and fuel inflation. But inflation is close to bottoming out, and is likely to begin rising... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ unlikely to tighten even if sales tax hike is delayed We now expect the government to delay the sales tax hike currently scheduled for October 2019 beyond 2020. While this would remove one obstacle to policy tightening by the Bank of Japan, the bigger... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) The acceleration in base pay in May largely reflects a rebound in working hours. While strong growth in part-time pay points to faster overall gains, there is still a long way to go before wage growth... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Low-inflation recovery continues Advanced economies grew fairly rapidly in the second quarter, with GDP growth likely to have rebounded strongly in the US, Japan and the UK and to have accelerated a little in the euro-zone. This in... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
