Global Economics Chart Pack Strong growth continues at start of Q3… Business surveys suggest that, after picking up in the second quarter, the world economy started Q3 on a strong footing. The upturn in Q2 was concentrated in advanced economies and was led by... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC starts gradual tightening cycle The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting, at which it hiked interest rates for the first time in nine years, was relatively dovish and adds to the impression that this will be a gradual... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy makes a reasonable start to Q3 After a fairly meagre 0.3% expansion in Q2, the economy looks to have made a reasonable start to Q3. Indeed, rises in both the manufacturing and services sector PMIs in July left the all-sector PMI... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation, to 9.8% y/y last month, from 10.9% y/y in June, is likely to make the central bank more confident that it can reverse the monetary tightening... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates on hold, further hikes this year unlikely Sri Lanka’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, and the less hawkish tone of the statement suggests that its tightening cycle may now be at an end. We now expect rates to be left on hold... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI rate cut to be followed by prolonged hold The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went with consensus expectations in cutting its repo rate by 25bp to 6.00% today. But it also acknowledged that inflation would soon be rising again. As such, further... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan giving up on its 2% inflation target? Comments today by BoJ Board Member Funo suggest that the Bank has given up on reaching its inflation target any time soon. Market expectations of policy tightening are likely to recede further as a... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dollar may still fall despite RBA’s reluctance to talk it down Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia today decided not to try and talk the dollar down after it left interest rates at 1.5%, we still think the dollar will eventually weaken from US$0.80 now to... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Flash CPI (Jul.) While June’s unemployment data painted a positive picture of the euro-zone labour market, July’s CPI release confirmed that this strength is putting only modest upward pressure on underlying inflation... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown shouldn’t be too severe. But the figures will clearly add to concerns about household debt. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Jobs growth switches from soft to soaring After a soft patch at the beginning of this year, jobs growth has soared in Australia in recent months. What’s more, of the net new 154,000 jobs that have been created since March all of them have... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher Canadian dollar no threat to economy The two-month rally in the Canadian dollar, from US$0.73 to US$0.80, doesn’t pose any direct threat to the economy, particularly given the significant decline in the real trade-weighted exchange rate... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode until December The Fed’s latest policy statement suggests that, barring any disruptive debt-ceiling stand-off, the FOMC is ready to announce it will begin reducing the size of its balance sheet at its September... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Election won’t solve Malaysia’s institutional problems There is growing speculation that Malaysia’s prime minister, Najib Razak, will take advantage of the recent strength of the economy by calling an early general election. The weak state of the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we no longer trust the business surveys? Once again the business surveys provided an over-optimistic reading of the economy’s health in the second quarter. This raises questions about their usefulness as a leading indicator, and suggests... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
