Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s unchanged reading for HICP inflation in Germany suggests that euro-zone inflation probably remained at 1.3% in July. German core inflation is set to creep higher over the rest of the year, but... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia slows pace of easing, but significant rate cuts still likely The statement accompanying the Colombian central bank’s decision to slow the pace of interest rate cuts to 25bp (from 50bp previously) suggests that policy might not be loosened as aggressively in the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is inflation really just 1.9%? Most people are right to believe that their inflation rate is not 1.9% as the official ABS data show. As different people spend different shares of their income on different items than the ABS assumes... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Spending, Labour Market & Inflation (Jun.) The rebound in retail sales and “core” household spending in June suggests that consumer spending rose at a solid pace last quarter. Meanwhile, inflation remains very low despite the continued... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Sluggish GDP growth to keep hawks in a minority While the softer tone of recent economic data may not be enough to prevent another split on the Monetary Policy Committee at August’s meeting, it supports our view that the MPC is still a way away... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rate cut not a foregone conclusion Financial markets and a large majority of analysts are braced for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting next week. But the RBI has developed a taste for springing surprises recently... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC stands pat, but rate cuts likely later this year The tone of the Turkish MPC statement published at today’s meeting remained relatively hawkish, but we think that falling inflation is likely to prompt the Council to start loosening monetary policy... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM Inflation drops to eight-year low as fuel prices slow EM inflation fell in June to its lowest rate since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. With the decline in fuel inflation close to bottoming out, we think EM inflation will trough in the... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (July) & Labour Data (June) Both the Swedish Economic Tendency Survey and labour market indicators point to increasing wage and price pressures. This supports our view that the Riksbank and markets are underestimating how soon... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has pay growth slowed? We had expected nominal pay growth to remain pretty sluggish – but not to start slowing! Since this is most likely to have been due to the exchange-rate induced rise in import costs, the slowdown... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Not ready to become hawkish The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly keep interest rates on hold at 1.5% when it meets next Tuesday 1 st August, and we expect it to retain its fairly upbeat view on the outlook for the... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The RBA will probably look through the decline in headline inflation in the second quarter, especially given that underlying price pressures were slightly stronger than it had anticipated. That said... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s central bank pauses before launching easing cycle Nigeria’s central bank kept its key interest rate on hold at 14.00% today, but the governor’s speech made it clear that policy loosening is on the agenda. We expect 200bp of cuts by the end of this... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in inflation will keep Fed on hold for now The unexpected decline in core inflation over recent months is only partly due to transient factors and suggests that, after raising rates twice in the first half of the year, the Fed will hike rates... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
