Japan Chart Pack Nearing full employment Japan’s economy will expand the most this year since 2013. Yet the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further since the start of the year. This isn’t due to a surge in productivity that has reduced... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation rebound will force the Fed to tighten further The subdued November CPI figures and the news that the Fed left its inflation and interest rate projections unchanged triggered a mini-rally in the bond markets, but arguably investors should be... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has inflation peaked? With inflation rising above 3% in November, there are some reasons to think that it has now reached a peak. It remains the case that the primary driver of the rise in inflation has been the slide in... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Core inflation likely to rise only gradually Many advanced economies are close to full employment, but this is likely to lead to only a small increase in price pressures. We expect the core inflation rate to edge up in the euro-zone, Japan and... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone withstand ECB tapering? We think that the euro-zone economic recovery is strong enough to cope with a gradual removal of policy support by the ECB over the coming years. The weak outlook for inflation will allow the ECB to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2018 We expect Japan’s GDP growth to slow next year as the economy is now operating above capacity. Price and wage pressures should strengthen somewhat but inflation will remain well below the Bank of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) Today’s Tankan survey showed that business conditions didn’t improve much further this quarter which suggests that growth is now slowing. Nonetheless, capacity and staff shortages continue to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget The recent rise in oil prices has raised some hopes that Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget – to be announced next week – will unveil a shift towards looser fiscal policy to support the economy. However, we... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish ECB to normalise policy very slowly While ECB President Draghi was upbeat about the economy at today’s press conference, he stated that the desire of some Governing Council members to signal an end to asset purchases is far from a... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2018 The emerging world is currently expanding at its fastest pace in four years, but we don’t think this will last in 2018. In this Focus we outline our key calls for next year. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Norway still a long way off The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged after its meeting today and brought the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates forward to autumn 2018. We think that it will wait until... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Wholesale price inflation rose to an eight-month high in November. Policymakers put less weight on the WPI measure, but it nevertheless supports our view that the debate will shift towards monetary... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI was the highest in nearly four years in December as external demand continues to improve. However, price pressures are only strengthening slowly. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline consumer prices increased by a robust 0.4% m/m in November, albeit mainly due to a 7.3% m/m surge in gasoline prices, with core consumer prices increasing by a more modest 0.1% m/m... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The death of inflation targeting? There are many reasons to think that inflation targeting has had its day. The framework has already evolved to some extent, with central banks adopting “flexible” inflation-targeting and... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan to keep policy loose next year With yields set to rise overseas and concerns that low policy rates may curtail lending likely to linger, speculation about policy tightening in Japan will not subside next year. However, we believe... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
