Canada Chart Pack Toronto housing market down and out Resale housing activity in Toronto plunged more than 40% last month and signs point to continued weakness in August. In similar fashion to Vancouver, resale activity will likely flounder over the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay on hold for a while longer The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today and the accompanying monetary policy statement suggests the central bank is in no rush to adjust rates any time soon. We are maintaining... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) The stagnation in wage growth at the record low of 1.9% in the second quarter supports our view that the low wage, low inflation climate will mean the RBA won’t raise interest rates next year as the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) Although CPI inflation held steady in July, we still think that it will inch up a bit further before the end of this year, as well as outpace wage growth for a while yet. 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Finnish GDP (Q2) July’s jump in Swedish inflation is partly due to a methodological change in the way that package holiday prices are tracked. Yet even excluding this effect, underlying inflation has picked up and... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The new long-term inflation trend History may be turned on its head over the next decade with Australia and New Zealand experiencing lower inflation rates than some of their peers. It follows that their exchange rates may be weaker... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated in July, and we think that it will rise further over the coming months. As such, further monetary policy loosening looks unlikely. 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose in July, and looks set to accelerate further over the coming months. As such, we think that there is no scope for further monetary loosening. 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Japan’s economy recorded the sixth consecutive quarterly rise in GDP and is on track for the longest expansion since the turn of the century. However, we expect price pressures to strengthen only... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update When will core inflation pick up? Although data released today showed that core CPI inflation remained weak in the US in July, we still think that it will pick up substantially next year. Outside the US, however, it will probably rise... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Geopolitical tensions halt Swiss franc’s slide The Swiss franc has had a rocky ride over the past month. In late July, it depreciated sharply to SFr1.15 to the euro, its lowest level since January 2015 when the Swiss National Bank abandoned its... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Productivity growth likely to remain muted The recent pick-up in productivity growth is at least partly due to tighter conditions in the labour market, with the dwindling pool of the unemployed forcing firms to invest in additional... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The weakness in core CPI inflation persisted in July, although transitory factors continued to play a sizeable role. 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation genie remains in its bottle Japan’s economy probably recorded the sixth quarter of uninterrupted GDP growth in Q2 and the outlook for the third quarter is positive. In fact, the economy remains on track to enjoy the longest... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egyptian inflation likely to fall by more than most expect Egyptian inflation rose to its highest rate since 1986 in July, but it has been pushed up by a number of one-off factors that will fade over the next six-to-nine months. Indeed, we think inflation has... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
