China Economics Update New Year effects to have lifted inflation in February Following a fall in January, consumer price inflation will probably have jumped last month to a one-year high. We expect a further rise in food price inflation to keep the headline rate elevated over... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Rate hikes unlikely despite rise in inflation Despite inflation rising to its highest rate in nearly four years in February, the central bank seems in little hurry to tighten monetary policy. We continue to believe that interest rates in the... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Feb.) & Swedish Production (Jan.) The further decline in Swiss inflation in February to a five-month low will add to the Swiss National Bank’s caution ahead of its monetary policy meeting next week. Indeed, subdued inflation is likely... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The slightly stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation data for February, of 10.3% y/y, means the MPC is likely to stick to its hawkish tone at Wednesday’s MPC meeting. Inflation should begin to edge... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) & Tokyo CPI (Feb.) The labour market continues to tighten and price pressures are strengthening further. However, there is still a long way to go to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Household sentiment weakened in February as the recent equity market turmoil reduced confidence in households’ personal finances. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in headline inflation does not change our view that the ECB will drop the easing bias from its forward guidance at its meeting on 8th March. But with core inflation still weak and... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in German inflation reflected falls in the volatile food and energy components. But the still subdued rate of core inflation will encourage the ECB to take a cautious approach to... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe’s “gradual” signal on progress towards rate hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 6 th March and it will probably continue to signal that there is no risk of a... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation edging closer to 2% target The Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures have trended higher and are close to the 2% inflation target. Despite the drop in headline inflation in January, the core inflation data will... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Saudi inflation in January was almost entirely the result of various austerity measures that came into effect at the start of this year. That said, a change to the base year of the... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could the Phillips Curve be L-shaped? Some economists have been considering whether, having been stubbornly low for years, wage inflation may take off as the world reaches full employment. This Update considers why this might occur. 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) The small decline in the headline inflation rate to 1.7% in January, from 1.9%, mainly reflects a drop in gasoline price inflation due to base effects. The Bank of Canada’s three preferred core... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the BoJ’s 2% inflation target achievable? On past form, capacity shortages alone will never be enough to generate 2% inflation in Japan. The prerequisite for faster price gains is that inflation expectations among households and firms also... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Underlying inflation has picked up again but we think this mostly reflects the lagged pass-through from previous exchange rate weakness. With producer prices of consumer goods now moderating... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
