Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.8% y/y, makes an interest rate cut at the central bank’s next policy meeting on 15th August increasingly likely. 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) South African inflation remained at the 4.5% mid-point of the target range in June, which strengthens our view that policymakers will follow up this month’s 25bp rate cut with another one in September... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jun.) Deflation in Saudi Arabia continued to ease last month as the pick-up in activity in the non-oil sector fed through into stronger price pressures. If oil prices stay low, as we expect, the government... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.3% y/y in the middle of July surely seals the deal on a rate cut at the Copom meeting next week. Moreover, with underlying price pressures weak, policymakers are... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Equities have further to fall Indian equities have dropped by over 3% so far in July (see Chart 1), even as most other Asian equities have held up reasonably well this month. The drop appears to have been triggered by proposals in... 23rd July 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Inflation was unchanged in June and while the consumption tax and the introduction of free childcare will muddy the waters, we expect underlying inflation to fall towards zero in 2020. 19th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea signals further rate cuts ahead The Bank of Korea (BoK) today cut interest rates by 25bp to 1.50% and signalled that further easing is on the way. Given the poor outlook for growth and the change in sentiment by the central bank, we... 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Manufacturing Sales (May) The 1.7% m/m rise in manufacturing volumes in May suggests that the economy had a stronger second-quarter performance than the Bank of Canada was expecting. Nevertheless, an average of the Bank’s... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) There is little pressure for the MPC to adjust interest rates in either direction with CPI inflation remaining at the Bank of England’s 2% target for a second consecutive month in June. The continued... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Jun.) Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in June, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate next week. 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, but the continued decline in the headline rate in June will help the MPC to justify another rate cut at... 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation in India rose last month but the headline rate remains below the RBI’s target, while core inflation is no major concern. An August rate cut is almost certain. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan at the wheel, inflation eases in CEE Developments in Turkey over the past week highlight that all levers of economic policy have effectively been centralised in the hands of one man – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The reaction in... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account confirms dovish intentions A lot has happened since the Governing Council’s policy meeting on 6th June, so the account published today has arguably been superseded by events. But it does confirm that even five weeks ago the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in June won’t prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates later this month and, in any case, we doubt that strength will be sustained. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Political risks and three big economic trends While it is recognised that political developments, such as a no deal Brexit and a Labour government, have the capacity to send the economy in different directions, it’s not as well known that three... 11th July 2019 · 20 mins read
